碳达峰情景下道路交通排放与近地面污染响应

Responses of road traffic emissions and near-surface air pollution under carbon-peaking scenarios

  • 摘要: 道路交通排放对城市减污降碳与近道路人群暴露具有重要影响。以石家庄市主城区为研究对象,设置基准、能效提升、强度减缓、结构转变与现有政策五类情景。采用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型模拟2021—2045年道路交通CO2及典型污染物排放变化,选取2023年7月代表性气象条件,基于烟团扩散模型(CALPUFF)对二环内主要道路交通线源开展扩散模拟,结合吸入暴露剂量方法评估不同年龄人群的暴露差异。结果表明,基准情景下CO2在2040年达峰,约1 090万t;现有政策情景可将达峰提前至2030年,并降至约891万t。污染物来源分化明显,微小型客车主导CO与HC排放,重型货车是NOx与PM2.5的重要来源。污染物浓度沿主干路与快速路走廊集聚,并随横向距离快速衰减;现有政策情景下近道路浓度与人群暴露总体降低,暴露削减17%~24%。研究可为重点道路走廊精细化管控与减污降碳协同治理提供定量依据。

     

    Abstract: Road traffic emissions exert substantial influences on urban co-control of air pollution and carbon emissions and on near-road population exposure. The main urban area of Shijiazhuang City was selected for a case study, and five scenarios were developed: baseline, energy-efficiency improvement, travel-intensity reduction, structural transition, and current policy. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was applied to simulate the trends of road traffic CO2 emissions and representative air pollutants from 2021 to 2045. Under representative meteorological conditions in July 2023, dispersion of traffic-related line sources along major roads within the Second Ring Road was simulated using the CALPUFF model, and inhalation exposure was assessed for different age groups using a daily exposure dose approach. The results show that CO2 emissions are projected to peak at approximately 10.90 million tonnes in 2040 under the baseline scenario, whereas the current-policy scenario advances the peak to 2030 and reduces it to about 8.91 million tonnes. Distinct source contributions are observed across vehicle categories: light-duty passenger cars dominate emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC), while heavy-duty trucks are key contributors to nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Pollutant concentrations concentrate along arterial-road and expressway corridors and decay rapidly in the lateral direction. Under the current-policy scenario, both near-road concentrations and population exposure decrease overall, with an exposure reduction of approximately 17%-24%. The findings provide quantitative evidence for corridor-specific refined management and coordinated control of air pollution and carbon emissions.

     

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