瓯江流域总氮污染的系统管控方案模拟与驱动因素研究

Systematic control simulation and driving factor analysis of total nitrogen pollution in the Oujiang River Basin

  • 摘要: 为评估瓯江流域总氮污染综合管控措施的效果并揭示其驱动机制,基于SWAT模型构建瓯江流域水文水质模型,并综合运用层次聚类分析、统计分析、相关性分析和主成分分析等方法,系统揭示了总氮(TN)负荷及总氮负荷强度时空分布特征,识别了主要风险源区,通过情景模拟定量评估综合管理措施以及总氮污染与经济指标的相关性。结果表明:
    (1)模型验证表明SWAT模型在流域内具有良好适用性,率定期与验证期各项指标(R²>0.6、NSE>0.6、|PBIAS|<0.3)均满足精度要求;(2)时空分析显示总氮负荷呈现显著分异特征:空间上形成"下游>上游>中游"格局;时间上汛期负荷占全年74%以上,凸显水文驱动的季节性规律。通过综合风险指数法识别出松阴溪流域、瓯江河段、楠溪江流域为关键源区,其面积占比37.83%贡献41.5%负荷负荷;(3)基于层次聚类分析将流域划分为三类污染类型区,相应设计的"分区分类"系统方案实现总氮负荷削减60.71%,显著优于单一措施(12.22%-42.46%);(4)结合驱动因子分析,瓯江流域的总氮污染问题与城镇化和经济发展进程紧密耦合,其主要驱动力是以城镇扩张、人口集聚及工业服务业发展为核心的综合性社会经济活动。研究结果可为瓯江流域制定兼顾空间分异特征的系统性减排策略、助力结合经济指标协同调控提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the effectiveness of comprehensive control measures for total nitrogen (TN) pollution in the Oujiang River Basin and to reveal its driving mechanisms, a hydrological-water quality model of the basin was constructed based on the SWAT model. Methods such as hierarchical cluster analysis, statistical analysis, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis were comprehensively applied to systematically reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of TN load and TN load intensity, identify major risk source areas, and quantitatively assess integrated management measures as well as the correlation between TN pollution and economic indicators through scenario simulations. The results show that:(1) Model verification demonstrated that the SWAT model performs well in the basin, with all evaluation indices (R² > 0.6, NSE > 0.6, |PBIAS| < 0.3) meeting accuracy requirements during both the calibration and validation periods.(2) Spatiotemporal analysis revealed significant differentiation in TN load: spatially, a pattern of “downstream > upstream > midstream” was observed; temporally, the wet-season load accounted for more than 74% of the annual total, highlighting the hydrologically driven seasonal pattern. Using a comprehensive risk index method, the Songyinxi sub-basin, the main Oujiang River section, and the Nanxijiang sub-basin were identified as key source areas, which contributed 41.5% of the TN load while occupying 37.83% of the basin area.(3) Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the basin was divided into three pollution-type zones. A corresponding “zoning-based systematic scheme” achieved a 60.71% reduction in TN load, significantly outperforming individual measures (12.22%–42.46%).(4) Combined with driving-factor analysis, TN pollution in the Oujiang River Basin was closely coupled with urbanization and economic growth. The main driving forces were comprehensive socio-economic activities centered on urban expansion, population agglomeration, and industrial/service-sector development.The findings provide a scientific basis for formulating systematic TN reduction strategies that account for spatial heterogeneity and for promoting coordinated regulation incorporating economic indicators in the Oujiang River Basin.

     

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