基于SWAT模型的瓯江流域总氮入海通量分区管控及减排成本优化

Zonal control of total nitrogen flux into the sea in the Oujiang River Basin based on SWAT model and abatement cost optimization

  • 摘要: 为评估瓯江流域总氮(TN)污染综合管控措施的效果并揭示其影响因素,基于SWAT模型构建瓯江流域水文水质模型,系统揭示TN入海通量时空分布和污染源结构特征,提出综合风险指数,识别流域TN污染类型,通过TN污染管控减排多情景模拟,量化不同管控策略的TN削减量与经济投入成本。结果表明:1)瓯江流域TN入海通量呈现下游>中游>上游分布特征,高值区为松阴溪流域和瓯江入海流域,汛期TN入海通量占全年总量的74%以上;2)松阴溪流域和瓯江入海流域为高风险源区,其面积占比为27.83%,但TN负荷贡献率达47.5%,瓯江流域主要污染类型为种植业主导型、工业源主导型、混合型三类;3)差异化的TN管控策略可实现TN削减量42.36~6 052.52 t/a,减排成本为1.44~898.21万元/a,相对于全流域管控策略节约成本12.25%~43.54%;4)瓯江流域 TN 负荷强度在浙江东海诸入海流域属较低水平,TN负荷与城镇人口、建成区面积、城市化率、第三产业产值等因子呈显著正相关,方差贡献率达68.8%。研究表明,瓯江流域TN污染与产业结构、土地利用格局密切相关,未来流域TN管控压力持续存在,分区分类差异化管控模式可提升减排成效与经济可行性。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the effectiveness of comprehensive total nitrogen (TN) pollution control measures and identify their influencing factors in the Oujiang River Basin, this study developed a hydrological-water quality model based on the SWAT model. The study systematically revealed the spatiotemporal distribution and pollution source structure characteristics of TN fluxes into the sea, proposed a comprehensive risk index to classify TN pollution types, and quantified TN reduction amounts and economic costs of different schemes through multi-scenario simulations of TN mitigation measures. The results indicated that: (1) TN fluxes into the sea in the Oujiang River Basin exhibited a distinct spatial gradient of lower reaches > middle reaches > upper reaches, with high-value zones identified in the Songyinxi River sub-basin and the estuary area. Flood season contributed over 74% of the annual TN flux. (2) These high-risk source regions accounted for only 27.83% of the basin area but contributed 47.5% of the TN load, highlighting three dominant pollution types of crop cultivation-dominated, industry-dominated, and mixed sources. (3) Differentiated TN reduction strategies achieved annual TN reductions ranging from 42.36 t/a to 6 052.52 t/a, with annual costs ranging from 1.44×104 yuan to 8.98×106 yuan, representing cost savings of 12.25%-43.54% compared to basin-wide uniform control. (4) The TN load intensity of the Oujiang River Basin was relatively low among all river basins flowing into the East China Sea in Zhejiang Province. TN load showed a significant positive correlation with factors such as urban population, built-up area, urbanization rate, and tertiary industry output, with a variance contribution rate of 68.8%. The findings suggest that TN pollution in the Oujiang River Basin is closely linked to industrial structure and land use patterns. TN control pressures will remain in the future, while zoned and categorized differentiated management strategies can enhance the abatement efficiency and economic feasibility.

     

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