海上CCUS集群化部署的船管协同优化与动态投资决策研究

Ship-pipeline collaborative optimization and dynamic investment decision-making for cluster deployment of offshore CCUS

  • 摘要: 碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术的推广对减缓全球气候变暖具有重要意义。源汇匹配技术作为CCUS技术的基础,能够有效识别最佳的二氧化碳运输路径,提高CCUS系统的效率和经济性。针对海上CCUS技术面临的经济成本高和技术风险大等挑战,开展了海上CCUS源汇匹配模型与经济性评价研究。基于混合整数线性规划法,建立了海上CO2封存利用多周期源汇匹配模型。模型以全流程成本最小化为目标,专门设计了适用于海上场景的船舶与管道并行运输成本模型和海上封存平准化成本函数,并将CO2利用收益直接纳入目标函数,实现“减排+增效”双重驱动。通过选取假定规划区为案例,开展为期20年的多周期动态规划分析。经济性评价结果显示,海上CCUS全流程成本中捕集成本占比最高,约为83%,运输成本、利用成本和封存成本分别约占8.6%、4.3%和2.7%。敏感性分析表明,系统成本对捕集效率最为敏感,其次是运输距离,且捕集效率的提升在海上平台环境中受到空间、载荷及能源供给等工程物理约束的显著限制。在多周期条件下,模型表现出了良好的源汇匹配稳健性。本研究形成的可扩展定量分析工具与决策支持框架,可为海上CCUS项目的集群规划、技术路线选择及大规模应用提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: The promotion of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies is of great significance for mitigating global warming. As a fundamental component of CCUS technologies, source-sink matching can effectively identify the optimal carbon dioxide transportation route and improve the efficiency and economic performance of CCUS systems. Aiming to address the challenges of high economic cost and substantial technical risk facing offshore CCUS technologies, this study conducted research on offshore CCUS source-sink matching modeling and economic evaluation. Based on the mixed integer linear programming method, a multi-period source-sink matching model for offshore CO2 storage and utilization was established. With the objective of minimizing the overall process cost, a cost model for parallel ship-pipeline transportation specifically designed for offshore scenarios and a levelized cost function for offshore storage were developed within this framework. CO2 utilization revenues were directly incorporated into the objective function, realizing the dual driving mechanism of "emission reduction and efficiency improvement". A hypothetical planning area was selected as a case study for a 20-year multi-period dynamic planning analysis. The results of economic evaluation showed that the capture cost accounted for the largest proportion of the total cost of the offshore CCUS process, at approximately 83%, while transportation cost, utilization cost and storage cost accounted for approximately 8.6%, 4.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the system cost was the most sensitive to capture efficiency, followed by transportation distance, and the improvement of capture efficiency was significantly constrained by physical limitations such as space, load and energy supply in the offshore platform environment. Under multi-period conditions, the model exhibited strong robustness in source-sink matching. The scalable quantitative analysis tool and decision support framework developed in this study can provide a scientific basis for cluster planning, technical route selection and large-scale application of offshore CCUS projects.

     

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