2000—2023年中国森林火灾时空演变特征

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of forest fires in China from 2000 to 2023

  • 摘要: 中国森林火灾频发,严重影响生态系统结构与功能,系统识别其长时序时空演变特征及区域差异,对防灾减灾与林业资源管理具有重要意义。基于2000—2023年中国大陆除上海外的30个省级行政区森林火灾统计资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变点检验识别森林火灾长期趋势与结构突变,结合火灾密度、受害率、等级结构和阶段均值刻画其省际空间分异;利用中国土地覆盖数据集(CLCD)森林掩膜约束下的MCD64A1森林烧毁面积和FIRMS森林火点数据,对8个典型省级行政区开展遥感交叉验证,并采用Spearman秩相关分析探讨火灾密度与气候、人口因子的省际关联。结果表明:2000—2023年中国森林火灾总体呈现由高位波动向低位运行转变的阶段性演变特征。Mann-Kendall检验显示火灾面积和火灾次数分别于2012年和2015年进入显著下降区间,Pettitt检验进一步识别出2011年为二者共同的显著结构突变年份;2012—2023年年均火灾次数和面积较2000—2011年分别下降74.5%和89.1%。森林火灾发生频次与受灾程度具有明显省际差异,南方部分省级行政区火灾密度相对较高、2011年前北方部分重点林区受害率较高;2011年后高火灾密度和高受害率省级行政区数量明显减少。遥感交叉验证显示,火灾次数与FIRMS森林火点数量、火灾面积与MCD64A1森林烧毁面积分别在6个和7个省(区)中表现出一致的阶段变化方向,合并样本Spearman秩相关系数分别为0.515和0.604(p<0.001)。省际相关分析显示,全国尺度上年均气温、年均降水量和人口密度均与火灾密度呈显著正相关;北方省级行政区内,年均气温、人口密度与火灾密度呈显著正相关,南方省级行政区内三项因子均未达到显著水平,表明火灾密度与气候、人口背景的省际关联具有区域差异。研究结果可为全国森林火灾防控重点识别、防火资源配置及分区分类防控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Forest fires occur frequently in China and have substantial impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning. Systematic identification of their long-term spatiotemporal evolution and regional differences is important for disaster prevention and mitigation and forest resource management. Based on forest fire statistics from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in mainland China, excluding Shanghai, during 2000-2023, this study applied the Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change-point test to identify long-term trends and structural changes, and characterized interprovincial spatial differentiation using forest fire density, forest fire damage rate, forest fire grade structure, and stage-specific means. Remote-sensing cross-validation was conducted for eight representative provincial-level administrative regions using MCD64A1 forest burned-area data and FIRMS forest active-fire data within annual forest masks derived from the CLCD. Spearman rank correlation analysis was further used to examine the interprovincial associations between forest fire density and climatic and population factors. The results showed that forest fire activity in China transitioned from pronounced fluctuations at relatively high levels to sustained low levels during 2000-2023. Burned area and the number of forest fires entered statistically significant declining periods in 2012 and 2015, respectively, while 2011 was identified as a common statistically significant structural change point for both indicators. Compared with 2000-2011, the mean annual number of forest fires and burned area during 2012-2023 decreased by 74.5% and 89.1%, respectively. Forest fire occurrence and damage exhibited marked interprovincial differences, with relatively high fire density in some southern provinces and relatively high damage rates in several key northern forest regions before 2011. After 2011, the numbers of provinces with high fire density and high damage rates decreased markedly, although changes were not synchronous across provinces and indicators. Remote-sensing cross-validation showed that official forest fire counts and FIRMS forest active-fire counts exhibited consistent stage-wise changes in six of the eight regions, while officially reported burned area and MCD64A1 forest burned area showed consistent changes in seven of the eight regions. The pooled Spearman rank correlation coefficients were 0.515 and 0.604, respectively (p<0.001). At the national scale, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and population density were all significantly and positively correlated with forest fire density. Among the northern provinces, annual mean temperature and population density were significantly and positively correlated with forest fire density, whereas none of the three variables reached statistical significance among the southern provinces, indicating regional differences in the interprovincial associations between forest fire density and climatic and population factors. These findings provide a scientific basis for identifying forest fire prevention priorities, allocating fire-prevention resources, and implementing region-specific prevention and control.

     

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