Abstract: Understanding shifts in the climatic niche during biological invasions is crucial for accurately predicting the potential invasion risks of alien species. Erigeron canadensis L., an invasive plant under key management in China, has established populations across many provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, posing threats to agricultural production and ecological security. However, the dynamics of its climatic niche during invasion into China remain unclear, and there is still uncertainty in conducting risk projection under climate change based on occurrence data. We integrated occurrence records and climatic variables from both the native range (North America) and the invaded range (China), and used the ecospat and COUE frameworks to analyze shifts in the climatic niche of E. canadensis after its introduction into China. A hierarchical MaxEnt model was applied to quantify multi-scale environmental driving factors and predict its potential suitable habitats in China under future climate change. The results showed that the climatic niche of E. canadensis moderately overlapped after its invasion into China from the native range. Both niche similarity tests and dynamic indices confirmed significant niche conservatism. Climatic factors governed its nationwide distribution, and non-climatic factors, including soil organic carbon and vegetation cover, substantially influenced habitat suitability. Most areas in eastern China represent stable invaded regions, whereas some areas in northwestern and southwestern China contain potential colonization areas, suggesting that the invasion of E. canadensis in China has not yet reached equilibrium. Under future climate warming scenarios, its suitable distribution range is projected to expand further. Therefore, it is necessary to implement zoned monitoring and differentiated control according to the climatic niche dynamics and invasion stages of E. canadensis, to curb its continuous spread.