一种耦合元胞自动机传播与残差网络的火灾遥感影像动态模拟方法

A dynamic simulation method coupling cellular automata propagation with residual networks for fire remote sensing images

  • 摘要: 在火灾遥感监测中,火灾传播过程的连续性与卫星观测的离散性之间存在固有矛盾,制约了过火区域时序影像的完整重建。针对这一问题,提出了一种统一的火灾影像模拟方法,由元胞自动机传播计算、基于燃烧状态的多波段辐射估算和过火阶段残差校正三部分组成。该方法在不改变内部结构的前提下,仅通过切换传播参考范围即可适配前向蔓延模拟与边界约束重建两类应用场景。以2020年四川省凉山州西昌市火场为研究区,基于Sentinel-2 MSI Level-2A地表反射率数据和已有森林火灾数据集,在控制燃烧基础概率 p_0 =0.35、风速5.0 m/s、风向180°下开展模拟试验。结果表明,前向蔓延模拟与边界约束重建分别在第1 070时相和第918时相达到起火像元所在燃料斑块的完全覆盖。光谱一致性方面,前向蔓延模拟在最优时相(第860时相)的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.0200、决定系数( R^2 )为0.872 7;边界约束重建在最优时相(第918时相)的RMSE为0.0227、 R^2 为0.8361。边界一致性方面,边界约束重建的交并比(IoU)为0.9491,明显高于前向蔓延模拟的0.4804,且过火参考范围外误分像元由290101降至0。

     

    Abstract: In fire remote sensing monitoring, the inherent mismatch between continuous fire spread dynamics and discrete satellite observations limits the complete temporal imagery reconstruction of burned areas. To address this issue, this study proposes a unified wildfire image simulation method comprising three components: cellular-automata-based spread computation, burn-state-dependent multispectral radiance estimation, and residual correction during the fire progression phase. Without altering its internal structure, the method adapts to both forward spread simulation and boundary-constrained reconstruction by switching only the propagation reference extent. Post-fire imagery is used solely to delineate the burned-area reference extent and does not directly replace spectral observations. Taking the fire site of Xichang City, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, in 2020 as the study area, simulation experiments were carried out based on Sentinel-2 MSI Level-2A surface reflectance data and existing forest fire datasets, under controlled conditions with of 0.35, wind speed of 5.0 m/s, and wind direction of 180°. The results showed that forward spread simulation and boundary-constrained reconstruction reached full coverage of the ignition-associated fuel patch at time steps 1070 and 918, respectively. For spectral consistency, forward simulation at its optimal time step (860) yielded RMSE = 0.0200 and = 0.8727, whereas constrained reconstruction at time step 918 yielded RMSE = 0.0227 and = 0.8361. For boundary consistency, constrained reconstruction achieved IoU = 0.9491, compared with 0.4804 for forward simulation. Moreover, the commission errors outside the reference extent were reduced from 290,101 to 0.

     

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