洪涝灾害生态影响的时空分异及驱动机制研究

Study on spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanisms of ecological impacts of flood disasters

  • 摘要: 为揭示洪涝灾害生态影响的长期演化规律及其驱动机制,以2006年中国典型洪涝事件为例,基于2003—2025年多源遥感与生态数据,分别构建归一化植被指数(NDVI)、叶面积指数(LAI)、净生态系统生产力(NEP)、水土保持(SWC)和水源涵养(WC)的生态偏离度时间序列,采用恢复轨迹拟合、恢复状态分级、XGBoost-SHAP和贝叶斯网络等方法,系统分析洪涝生态影响的时间演化、空间分异及传导特征。结果表明:洪涝生态恢复具有明显阶段性,NDVI、LAI和SWC分别于灾后约2.58 a、2.91 a和5.35 a恢复至基线水平,植被结构恢复总体快于生态功能恢复;生态影响具有显著空间异质性,NDVI、LAI、SWC和NEP恢复区域总体呈扩大趋势并出现不同程度超补偿现象,而WC表现出灾后中期退化、后期恢复的演化特征;海拔、降水和气温是影响植被恢复的重要环境因子,降水量约60 mm、海拔500~1000 m和温度15~22 ℃对应较优恢复区间,表现出明显的阈值效应;贝叶斯网络分析表明,洪涝生态恢复存在由植被结构向生态功能逐步传导的层级关联关系。综合来看,洪涝生态恢复遵循环境驱动—植被响应—功能重建的层级响应路径,其中植被结构恢复是连接环境变化与生态功能重建的重要中介环节。研究结果可为洪涝灾后生态修复与流域生态风险管理提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the long-term evolution patterns of ecological impacts of flood disasters and their driving mechanisms, this study took a typical flood event in China in 2006 as a case study. Based on multi-source remote sensing and ecological datasets for the period 2003-2025, we constructed the time series of ecological deviation for five indicators, respectively: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), soil and water conservation (SWC), and water conservation (WC). Recovery trajectory fitting, recovery-state classification, XGBoost-SHAP analysis, and Bayesian network modeling were integrated to systematically analyze the temporal evolution, spatial heterogeneity, and transmission characteristics of post-flood ecological responses. The results showed that: Post-flood ecological recovery exhibited distinct stage-dependent characteristics, with NDVI, LAI, and SWC returning to their baseline levels approximately 2.58, 2.91, and 5.35 years after the flood, respectively, indicating a recovery pattern characterized by rapid structural restoration and gradual functional reconstruction. Ecological impacts displayed pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Recovery areas of NDVI, LAI, SWC, and NEP expanded continuously over time and showed varying degrees of overcompensation, whereas WC experienced degradation during the intermediate recovery stage and recovered in the later stage. Elevations, precipitation and temperature were identified as the dominant drivers of post-flood vegetation recovery. Clear threshold effects were detected, with optimal recovery occurring at precipitation levels of approximately 60 mm, elevations between 500 m and 1 000 m, and temperatures ranging from 15 ℃ to 22 ℃. Bayesian network analysis revealed a hierarchical correlation in post-flood ecological recovery, in which influences propagated gradually from vegetation structure to ecological functions. Overall, post-flood ecosystem recovery followed a hierarchical response pathway of environmental drivers-vegetation response-functional reconstruction, in which vegetation structure played a critical intermediary role linking environmental changes to ecosystem functional recovery. These findings can provide scientific support for post-disaster ecological restoration and watershed ecological risk management.

     

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