泥石流易发性驱动机制及生态响应以 2025 年榆中县泥石流为例

Driving mechanisms of debris flow susceptibility and ecosystem responses: a case study of the 2025 debris flow in Yuzhong County

  • 摘要: 当前气候变化和生态退化背景下,突发性强、破坏力大的泥石流等地质灾害频发,加剧了对生态安全的威胁,精确评估泥石流易发性与生态损害、优化生态修复策略的资源配置,有助于推动生态管理向前瞻预防和精准干预转型。以2025年8月7日榆中县泥石流灾害为研究对象,首先基于随机森林模型实现泥石流灾害影响范围的自动化识别,为后续研究提供数据支撑;基于LSTM模型,整合海拔、坡度、降水、地形位置指数等9个关键因子,对研究区进行逐像素的易发性分析;采用基于归一化植被指数( NDVI) 的标准化异常检测方法,定量分析泥石流灾害发生后对生态系统的损害程度。结果表明:泥石流灾害的影响范围与山谷沟道高度一致,泥沙及石块主要沿沟道移动;尽管极低风险的区域占53.7%,但极高风险区仍需重点关注。总体来看,海拔高、坡度大、降水充沛的区域灾害易发性显著较高,地形位置指数的贡献最大,平均贡献约为0.13,沟谷汇水区及高势能区域是灾害高发区。基于NDVI时间序列分析结果,受灾区域在灾害发生后平均15.2 d出现显著NDVI异常,即平均遥感响应时间为15.2 d;平均标准损失量为−3.0,局部最大损失量达到−24.1,生态系统受损程度较为严重。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of climate change and multiple forms of ecological degradation, geological disasters such as debris flows—characterized by their sudden onset and destructive power—have become increasingly frequent, and pose severe threats to ecological security. Therefore, it is of great significance to accurately assess debris-flow susceptibility and ecological damage, so as to optimize resource allocation for ecological restoration strategies and promote ecological management toward more proactive prevention and targeted intervention. First, a Random Forest model was employed to achieve automated identification of debris-flow impact areas, providing data support for subsequent analyses. Second, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was used to integrate nine key factors, including elevation, slope, precipitation, and topographic position index, to conduct pixel-level susceptibility analysis across the study area. Subsequently, a standardized anomaly detection method based on NDVI was adopted to quantitatively evaluate the extent of ecosystem damage following the debris-flow event. The results indicated that the affected areas of the debris flow were highly consistent with valley gullies, with sediment and rocks mainly transported along the gullies. Although areas classified as very low risk accounted for 53.7% of the study region, areas of very high risk still required particular attention. Overall, regions with high elevations, steep slopes, and abundant precipitation exhibited significantly greater susceptibility to the debris flow. Among all factors, the topographic position index contributed the most, with an average contribution value of 0.13, indicating that gully catchment areas and high-potential-energy regions were the primary hotspots for disaster occurrence. Based on the NDVI time-series analysis results, significant NDVI anomalies appeared in the disaster-affected areas at an average of 15.2 d after the disaster, i.e., the average remote sensing response time was 15.2 d; the average standardized loss was-3.0, and the local maximum loss reached −24.1, indicating that the danger of ecosystem damage was relatively severe.

     

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