石化企业多米诺事故场景下的区域环境风险评价技术

Regional Environmental Risk Assessment of Petrochemical Plants under Domino Accident Scenarios

  • 摘要: 以分析区域尺度石化企业高风险装置的多米诺效应事故为基础,整合了装置在多米诺事故下失效的逻辑表达式和事故发生概率计算方法,结合信息扩散法研究得到了基于企业风险的区域环境风险评价方法。最后,应用该方法对某市进行了区域环境风险评价,并利用ArcGIS软件对评价结果进行了分析。结果表明,风险管理部门应重点关注该市的3个极高风险区域,优先配置管理资源的同时还应采取强制措施降低该类区域的风险。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the regional environmental risk caused by centralization of various kinds of petrochemical plants is increasingly significant, which urgently needs to be addressed to ensure the regional environmental safety. Based on the analysis of domino accidents risk among the installations at the regional scale, and integrated with the logical operation expressions for domino effect and the accident possibility calculation methods, the regional environmental risk assessment method was obtained in combination with the information diffusion method. In the case study, the method was used to assess the regional environmental risk of a city and the assessment results were visualized by the application of ArcGIS software. The results showed that the risk management departments should pay high attentions to three areas with extremely high risk, give high priorities when allocating management resources, and adopt mandatory measure to reduce the risks in these areas.

     

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