基于三角随机模拟的生活垃圾填埋场地下水环境健康风险评价模型

Assessment Model of Landfill Sites Groundwater Environmental Health Risk Based on Stochastic Simulation-triangular Fuzzy Numbers

  • 摘要: 基于US EPA健康风险评价方法,将三角模糊数和随机模拟方法进行耦合,建立基于三角随机模拟的地下水环境健康风险评价模型,并以我国北方某生活垃圾填埋场为例,进行地下水环境健康风险评价。结果表明:6口地下水水质监测井的儿童健康风险均超过可接受水平,其中Z1和Z2监测井的风险值均分布于Ⅲ、Ⅳ 2个风险等级;3口监测井的成人健康风险超过可接受水平,其中Z6监测井的风险值分布于Ⅴ、Ⅵ 2个风险等级。与常规确定性方法的评价结果进行对比分析可知,该模型在一定程度上解决了传统确定性评价方法存在的不确定性问题,不仅可以判定地下水污染可能隶属的风险等级,而且可以定量得出其相应的概率水平,可为决策者提供更加精确的环境健康风险评价信息,为地下水污染管理工作提供依据。

     

    Abstract: On the basis of US EPA health risk assessment method, and coupling the methods of triangular fuzzy number and stochastic simulation, the Stochastic Simulation-Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Model was built up and applied in groundwater environmental health risk assessment for a domestic waste landfill site in northern China as a case study. The results showed that the children's health risks of six monitoring wells all exceed the acceptable level, and the values of wells Z1 and Z2 distributed in Level Ⅲ and Level Ⅳ interval. The adults’ health risks of three monitoring wells also exceed the acceptable level, and the values of well Z6 distributed in Level Ⅴ and Level Ⅵ interval. Compared with that by the deterministic method, this model in a certain extent solved the uncertainty problem existing in the traditional deterministic evaluation process. It could not only calculate the risk level of groundwater pollution, but also quantitatively obtain the corresponding probability level, providing more accurate assessment information of the health risks for the decision makers and more basis for the groundwater pollution management.

     

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