基于VAR模型的天津市PM2.5与其他大气污染物的关系

Study on the relationship between PM2.5 and other air pollutants in Tianjin based on VAR model

  • 摘要: 近年来我国多个地区遭遇严重重污染天气过程,极大影响了人们的身体健康与生活环境。在研究重污染天气的过程中,PM2.5与其他大气污染物的关联度成了学术界研究重点。基于向量自回归模型,综合运用单位根检验、AR特征根检验、广义脉冲响应函数以及方差分解法分析了天津市2014年1月1日—2016年12月31日包含PM2.5在内的空气质量相关数据;研究PM2.5与其影响因素的动态关系,及其他大气污染物对PM2.5的影响作用。结果表明:PM2.5与其他大气污染物之间所构成的空气质量系统模型是稳定的,且SO2、NO2与CO浓度的增加短期内会引起PM2.5浓度的增加,治理SO2与NO2对PM2.5的影响较大;O3浓度的增加对PM2.5有抑制作用。因此,建议天津市将调整产业结构,加强对SO2的治理放在首位。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, severe haze weathers have hit many areas of China, which has greatly affected people’s health and life. In the study on the haze problem, the relationship between PM2.5 and other air pollutants has become the focus of academic researches. Therefore, based on the vector autoregressive model and in combination with unit root test, AR eigenvalue test, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the air quality related data including PM2.5 in Tianjin from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 were analyzed. Also the dynamic relationship between PM2.5 and its influencing factors was analyzed and the impact of other atmospheric pollutants on PM2.5 studied. The result shows the model of air quality system formed by PM2.5 and other air pollutants is stable. The increase of SO2, NO2 and CO concentration will cause the increase of PM2.5 concentration in a short time; the effect of SO2 and NO2 on PM2.5 is more significant; the increase of O3 concentration has an inhibitory effect on PM2.5. Therefore, suggestions on adjusting the industrial structure and strengthening the governance of SO2 were put forward as the primary solutions for the government of Tianjin to manage haze pollution.

     

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