Evaluation methods of environmental carrying capacity and their operational applications: progress and prospect
-
摘要: 开展环境承载力评价,建立资源环境承载力监测预警机制,是当前我国推进生态文明建设和加强生态环境管理的重要任务。总结了当前国内外环境承载力评价的方法,包括指标体系评价法、系统模型法、环境容量法及供需平衡法等,比较了各方法的内涵、表征形式及优缺点;分析了环境承载力评价方法在业务化应用中存在的不足,即评价方法综合性不够,评价结果预测作用弱,区域开放性和尺度效应考虑不足,应用性不足等问题;着眼于环境承载力评价方法的业务化应用,提出今后应进一步在区域生态环境系统综合评价、差异化的指标体系构建、评价方法的标准化、评价结果的模拟预测功能实现4个方面开展研究。Abstract: It is an important task for China to carry out the environmental carrying capacity evaluation (ECCE) and establish the monitoring and early warning mechanism of resources and environment carrying capacity in ecological civilization construction and ecological and environmental management. The current evaluation methods of ECCE at home and abroad were summarized, including index system evaluation method, system model method, environmental capacity method and supply and demand balance method, and the connotation, representation forms, advantages and disadvantages of each method were compared. The shortcomings of the evaluation method of environmental carrying capacity in the operational application were analyzed, such as the insufficient comprehensiveness of the evaluation method, the weak prediction effect of the evaluation result, the insufficient consideration of the regional openness and scale effect, and the insufficient application. Focusing on the operational application of ECCE method, it was suggested that further research should be carried out in four aspects, including comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological environment system, construction of differentiated index system, standardization of evaluation methods, and realization of simulation and prediction function of evaluation results.
-
[1] MALTHUS T R . An essay on the principle of population[M].London:Pickering, 1798. [2] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Potential population supporting capacities of lands in developing world[R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1982. [3] Carrying capacity assessment with a pilot study of Kenya:a resource accounting methodology for exploring national options for sustainable development[R]. Paris and Rome:UNESCO & Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1985. [4] SLEESER M . Enhancement of carrying capacity options ECCO[M]. London:The Resource Use Institute, 1990. [5] FENG Z M, SUN T, YANG Y Z , et al. The progress of resources and environment carrying capacity:from single-factor carrying capacity research to comprehensive research[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2018,9(2):125-134. [6] 封志明, 杨艳昭, 闫慧敏 , 等. 百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践[J]. 资源科学, 2017,39(3):379-395.FENG Z M, YANG Y Z, YAN H M , et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20th Century:from theory to practice[J]. Resources Science, 2017,39(3):379-395. [7] KHANNA P, BABU P R, GEORGE M S . Carrying-capacity as a basis for sustainable development:a case study of national capital region in India[J]. Progress in Planning, 1999,52(2):101-166. [8] BISHOP A B . Carrying capacity in regional environmental management[J]. Conservation in Practice, 1974,1(1):17-24. [9] SCHNEIDER D . The carrying capacity concept as a planning tool[M]. Chicago:American Planning Association, 1978. [10] FURUYA K. Environmental carrying capacity in an aquaculture ground of seaweed and shellfish in northern Japan [C]//Determining environmental carrying capacity of coastal and marine areas:progress,constraints and future options. Hong Kong:PEMSEA Workshop Proceedings, 2003: 52-59. [11] 高吉喜 . 可持续发展理论探讨:生态承载力理论、方法与应用[M]. 北京: 中国环境科学出版社, 2001. [12] 樊杰 . 我国主体功能区划的科学基础[J]. 地理学报, 2007,62(4):339-350.FAN J . The scientific foundation of major function oriented zoning in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007,62(4):339-350. [13] 徐琳瑜, 康鹏 . 工业园区规划环境影响评价中的环境承载力方法研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2013,33(3):918-930.XU L Y, KANG P . Evaluation of environment carrying capacity on development planning of an industrial park[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2013,33(3):918-930. [14] 中共中央办公厅国务院办公厅印发《关于建立资源环境承载能力监测预警长效机制的若干意见》[A/OL].( 2017 -09-20)[2019-04-06]. . [15] 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.国家发改委等13部委联合下发由地理资源所牵头编制的《资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法(试行). [EB/OL].( 2016 -10-18)[2019-04-06] . [16] 郭秀锐, 毛显强, 冉圣宏 . 国内环境承载力研究进展[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2000,10(3):29-31.GUO X R, MAO X Q, RAN S H . Research progress in environmental carrying capacity in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2000,10(3):29-31. [17] 李华姣, 安海忠 . 国内外资源环境承载力模型和评价方法综述:基于内容分析法[J]. 中国国土资源经济, 2013,26(8):65-68.LI H J, AN H Z . Reviews on resources and environment carrying capacity model and evaluation methods both in China and abroad-based on content analysis[J]. Natural Resource Economics of China, 2013,26(8):65-68. [18] 卢亚灵, 刘年磊, 程曦 , 等. 京津冀区域大气环境承载力监测预警研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017,27(5):36-40.LU Y L, LIU N L, CHENG X , et al. Monitoring and early warning of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2017,27(5):36-40. [19] 陈百明 . “中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量”项目研究方法概论[J]. 自然资源学报, 1991,6(3):197-205.CHEN B M . An outline of the research method of the project “The productivity and population carrying capacity of the land resource in China”[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 1991,6(3):197-205. [20] 李磊, 贾磊, 赵晓雪 , 等.层次分析: 熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014,23(4):456-460.LI L, JIA L, ZHAO X X , et al. Application of the AHP and entropy weight method in evaluation on city water environmental carrying capacity[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2014,23(4):456-460. [21] 刘艳菊, 李巍, 郝芳华 . 规划环境影响评价中大气环境承载力分析研究[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2009,9(3):78-83.LIU Y J, LI W, HAO F H . On the application of atmospheric environment carrying capacity to the planning environmental impact assessment[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2009,9(3):78-83. [22] 张永勇, 夏军, 王中根 . 区域水资源承载力理论与方法探讨[J]. 地理科学进展, 2007,26(2):126-132.ZHANG Y Y, XIA J, WANG Z G . Research on regional water resources carrying capacity theory and method[J]. Progress in Geography, 2007,26(2):126-132. [23] 魏子新, 周爱国, 王寒梅 , 等. 地质环境容量与评价研究[J]. 上海地质,2009(1):40-44.WEI Z X, ZHOU A G, WANG H M , et al. Study on evaluation of geological environmental capacity[J]. Shanghai Geology,2009(1):40-44. [24] 刘玉娟, 刘邵权, 刘斌涛 , 等. 汶川地震重灾区雅安市资源环境承载力[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010,19(5):554-559.LIU Y J, LIU S Q, LIU B T , et al. Bearing capacity of resources and environment of Ya’an:heavily damaged area by Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2010,19(5):554-559. [25] 雷勋平, 邱广华 . 基于墒权TOPSIS模型的区域资源环境承载力评价实证研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2016,36(1):314-323.LEI X P, QIU G H . Empirical study about the carrying capacity evaluation of regional resources and environmental based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2016,36(1):314-323. [26] 薛英岚, 吴昊, 吴舜泽 , 等. 基于环境承载力的适度人口规模研究:以北海市为例[J]. 环境保护科学, 2016,42(1):1-6.XUE Y L, WU H, WU S Z , et al. Study of a moderate population scale based on environmental carrying capacity:taking Beihai City as an example[J]. Environmental Protection Science, 2016,42(1):1-6. [27] 皮庆, 王小林, 成金华 , 等. 基于PSR模型的环境承载力评价指标体系与应用研究:以武汉城市圈为例[J]. 科技管理研究, 2016,36(6):238-244.PI Q, WANG X L, CHENG J H , et al. Environment carrying capacity evaluation system and applied research based on PSR model:a case study of Wuhan metropolitan area[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2016,36(6):238-244. [28] 曾维华, 王华东, 薛纪渝 , 等. 环境承载力理论及其在湄洲湾污染控制规划中的应用[J]. 中国环境科学, 1998,18(增刊):71-74.ZENG W H, WANG H D, XUE J Y , et al. Theory of environment carrying capacity and it’s application of environmental planning on Meizhou Bay[J]. China Environmental Science, 1998,18(Suppl):71-74. [29] 徐志青, 刘雪瑜, 肖书虎 , 等. 珠江三角洲地区水环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2019,9(1):44-54.XU Z Q, LIU X Y, XIAO S H , et al. Evaluation and obstacle factors study of water environmental carrying capacity in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2019,9(1):44-52. [30] LI N, YANG H, WANG L C , et al. Optimization of industry structure based on water environmental carrying capacity under uncertainty of the Huai River Basin within Shandong Province,China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015,112:4594-4604. [31] 陈永霞, 薛惠锋, 王媛媛 , 等. 基于系统动力学的环境承载力仿真与调控[J]. 计算机仿真, 2010,27(2):294-298.CHEN Y X, XUE H F, WANG Y Y , et al. Simulation and adjustment of environmental carrying capacity based on system dynamics[J]. Computer Simulation, 2010,27(2):294-298. [32] 李文龙, 任圆 . 城市综合承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究[J]. 生态经济, 2017,33(2):78-80.LI W L, REN Y . Research on system dynamics simulation model urban comprehensive carrying capacity[J]. Ecological Economy, 2017,33(2):78-80. [33] 王开运 . 生态承载力复合模型系统与应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2007. [34] 王家骥, 姚小红, 李京荣 , 等. 黑河流域生态承载力估测[J]. 环境科学研究, 2000,13(2):44-48.WANG J J, YAO X H, LI J R , et al. Assessment for ecological carrying capacity of Heihe River Basin[J]. Research of Environmental Science, 2000,13(2):44-48. [35] 张子龙, 陈兴鹏, 焦文婷 , 等. 基于能值理论的环境承载力定量评价方法探讨及其应用[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011,25(8):18-23.ZHANG Z L, CHEN X P, JIAO W T , et al. Quantitative measure method for environmental carrying capacity and its application: based on energy theory[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011,25(8):18-23. [36] 胡晓芬, 陈兴鹏, 韩杰 , 等. 基于能值分析的汉藏回民族地区环境承载力评价[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,53(2):206-212.HU X F, CHEN X P, HAN J , et al. Evaluation of environmental carrying capacity of the Han, Tibetan and Hui ethnic areas based on emery analysis[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2017,53(2):206-212. [37] 刘东, 封志明, 杨艳昭 . 基于生态足迹的中国生态承载力供需平衡分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012,27(4):614-624.LIU D, FENG Z M, YANG Y Z . Ecological balance between supply and demand in China using ecological footprint method[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012,27(4):614-624. [38] ZHAO S, LI Z Z, LI W L . A modified method of ecological footprint calculation and its application[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2005,18(1):65-75. [39] 刘年磊, 卢亚灵, 蒋洪强 , 等. 基于环境质量标准的环境承载力评价方法及其应用[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017,36(3):296-305.LIU N L, LU Y L, JIANG H Q , et al. Environmental carrying capacity evaluation methods and application based on environmental quality standards[J]. Progress in Geography, 2017,36(3):296-305. [40] 张会涓, 陈然, 赵言文 . 基于模糊物元模型的区域水环境承载力研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2012,32(2):186-189.ZHANG H J, CHEN R, ZHAO Y W . Regional carrying capacity of water environment based on fuzzy matter-element model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012,32(2):186-189. [41] 全国水环境容量核定技术指南[R]. 北京:中国环境规划院, 2003. [42] 张玉珍, 曹文志, 陈锦 , 等. 九龙江流域湖库化河段水环境容量研究[J]. 福建师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015,31(6):85-89.ZHANG Y Z, CAO W Z, CHEN J , et al. Study on the water environmental capacity of the Lake-Kuhua reach in Kowloon Basin[J]. Journal of Fujian Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2015,31(6):85-89. [43] 王玉敏, 周孝德, 李家科 . 湖泊水环境容量迭加计算方法研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2005,19(6):108-112.WANG Y M, ZHOU X D, LI J K . Study on lake water environmental capacity superposition calculation method[J]. Journal of Arid Resources and Environment, 2005,19(6):108-112. [44] 彭嘉玉, 雷坤, 乔飞 , 等. 基于不同设计水文条件的铁岭水环境容量核算[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2017,7(4):470-476.PENG J Y, LEI K, QIAO F , et al. Calculation of water environmental capacity in Tieling based on different design hydrological conditions[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2017,7(4):470-476. [45] 钱跃东 . 区域大气环境承载力评估方法研究[D]. 南京:南京大学, 2011. [46] 覃扬颂, 支国强, 李田富 , 等. 基于可开发利用土地的区域大气环境承载力研究[J]. 环境科学导刊, 2016,35(增刊):164-167.QING Y S, ZHI G Q, LI T F , et al. Study on regional atmospheric environmental carrying capacity based on development and utilization of land[J]. Environmental Science Survey, 2016,35(Suppl):164-167. [47] 邓伟 . 山区资源环境承载力研究现状与关键问题[J]. 地理研究, 2010,29(6):959-969.DENG W . Discussion on mountain area resource and environment carrying capacity[J]. Geographical Research, 2010,29(6):959-969. [48] 牛方曲, 封志明, 刘慧 . 资源环境承载力评价方法回顾与展望[J]. 资源科学, 2018,40(4):655-663.NIU F Q, FENG Z M, LIU H . A review on evaluating methods of regional resources and environment carrying capacity[J]. Resources Science, 2018,40(4):655-663. [49] LANE M, DAWES L, GRACE P . The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model:an Australian case study[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2014,272:220-231. [50] 郭建军, 李凯, 江宝骅 , 等. 流域生态承载力空间尺度效应分析:以石羊河流域为例[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2014,50(3):383-389.GUO J J, LI K, JIANG B H , et al. Effects of the spatial scale on regional biocapacity:a case study of Shiyang River Basin[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2014,50(3):383-389. [51] 吕一河, 傅伯杰 . 生态学中的尺度及尺度转换方法[J]. 生态学报, 2001,21(12):2096-2105.LÜ Y H, FU B J . Ecological scale and scaling[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2001,21(12):2096-2105. [52] 刘晓丽, 方创琳 . 城市群资源环境承载力研究进展及展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2008,27(5):35-42.LIU X L, FANG C L . Progress and prospect of study on carrying capacity of resource and environment of city clusters[J]. Progress in Geography, 2008,27(5):35-42.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 961
- HTML全文浏览量: 279
- PDF下载量: 190
- 被引次数: 0