Abstract: In order to investigate the influence of emission reduction policy on energy consumption and carbon emission, a system simulation model of energy consumption carbon emission in Shandong Province was constructed from the aspects of economy, energy, population and environment. On the basis of validating the model, the one-dimensional scenario and multi-dimensional comprehensive scenario simulations were carried out. The results showed that under the set scenario parameters, the adjustment of industrial structure, science and technology investment and energy structure could effectively promote carbon emission reduction, but the effects of emission reduction were different. If science and technology investment was represented by cleaner technology investment, it was more conducive to the realization of carbon emission reduction goals. The single factor adjustment had certain limitations in the emission reduction effect, while the multi-factor comprehensive simulation was close to achieve low carbon economic development targets in Shandong Province of the 13 ^th five year plan, with the second and third industry investment propertion in fixed assets investment of 49.43% and 46.94% respectively, the technology investment ratio of 2.70%, and the the energy consumption ratio of 74.87%:15.27%:9.86%.