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南京市水环境承载力情景预测研究

徐志青 刘雪瑜 邓齐玉 颜秉斐 肖书虎 孙晨

徐志青, 刘雪瑜, 邓齐玉, 颜秉斐, 肖书虎, 孙晨. 南京市水环境承载力情景预测研究[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2020, 10(3): 494-503. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190168
引用本文: 徐志青, 刘雪瑜, 邓齐玉, 颜秉斐, 肖书虎, 孙晨. 南京市水环境承载力情景预测研究[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2020, 10(3): 494-503. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190168
XU Zhiqing, LIU Xueyu, DENG Qiyu, YAN Bingfei, XIAO Shuhu, SUN Chen. Scenario analysis and forecasts of water environment carrying capacity in Nanjing City[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2020, 10(3): 494-503. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190168
Citation: XU Zhiqing, LIU Xueyu, DENG Qiyu, YAN Bingfei, XIAO Shuhu, SUN Chen. Scenario analysis and forecasts of water environment carrying capacity in Nanjing City[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2020, 10(3): 494-503. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190168

南京市水环境承载力情景预测研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190168
详细信息
    作者简介:

    徐志青(1994—),女,硕士,研究方向为城市水环境承载力研究,langi90@163.com

    通讯作者:

    孙晨 E-mail: sunchen@craes.org.cn

  • 中图分类号: X24

Scenario analysis and forecasts of water environment carrying capacity in Nanjing City

More Information
    Corresponding author: SUN Chen E-mail: sunchen@craes.org.cn
  • 摘要: 了解区域水环境承载力未来发展状况,有助于支撑区域生态文明建设。以南京市为研究区域,构建基于社会经济-水资源-水环境复合系统的水环境承载力指标体系,建立区域适用的系统动力学模型,设计未来发展的6种可能情景;在此基础上,将遗传算法用于投影寻踪优化,构建遗传投影寻踪方法,预测2017—2030年不同发展方案下的水环境承载力。结果表明:2017—2030年各方案下南京市水环境承载力均呈上升趋势,各方案对水环境承载力的提升效果表现为综合方案(30.1%)>节水方案(28.5%)>水污染治理方案(24.2%)>经济优化方案(24.0%)>原始方案(21.3%)>人口增长方案(12.5%)。原始方案中水环境承载力稳步提升,2027年开始超过Ⅰ级,即在现状发展模式下,南京市社会经济发展的规模处于水环境承载力可支撑的规模范围内;综合方案下,水环境承载力最快达到Ⅰ级;人口增长方案下,水环境承载力发展水平显著受阻,在预测期内始终未达到Ⅰ级。南京市若采取人口增长、经济优化、水资源节约与水污染治理协同发展模式,其水环境承载力将会快速提升。

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-10-12
  • 刊出日期:  2020-05-20

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