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能见度参数化方案优化及在北京地区的应用评估

王继康 谢超 张天航 张碧辉 张恒德 饶晓琴

王继康, 谢超, 张天航, 张碧辉, 张恒德, 饶晓琴. 能见度参数化方案优化及在北京地区的应用评估[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2020, 10(3): 330-337. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190186
引用本文: 王继康, 谢超, 张天航, 张碧辉, 张恒德, 饶晓琴. 能见度参数化方案优化及在北京地区的应用评估[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2020, 10(3): 330-337. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190186
WANG Jikang, XIE Chao, ZHANG Tianhang, ZHANG Bihui, ZHANG Hengde, RAO Xiaoqin. Modification of visibility parameterization scheme and its application evaluation in Beijing[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2020, 10(3): 330-337. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190186
Citation: WANG Jikang, XIE Chao, ZHANG Tianhang, ZHANG Bihui, ZHANG Hengde, RAO Xiaoqin. Modification of visibility parameterization scheme and its application evaluation in Beijing[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2020, 10(3): 330-337. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190186

能见度参数化方案优化及在北京地区的应用评估

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20190186
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王继康(1990—),男,硕士,主要研究方向为空气值模拟与预报,wjk_1990@126.com

    通讯作者:

    张天航 E-mail: sharp@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: X16

Modification of visibility parameterization scheme and its application evaluation in Beijing

More Information
    Corresponding author: ZHANG Tianhang E-mail: sharp@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • 摘要: 为了利用订正后PM2.5浓度预报结果提高能见度预报准确性,根据不同相对湿度下能见度与PM2.5浓度的相关关系,提出了一种改进的能见度参数化方案(S1)。为了评估该方案的预报性能,利用基于最优多模式集成方法预报的PM2.5浓度对北京市2019-02-18—03-05污染过程的能见度进行预报,并对比评估了利用美国大气能见度观测项目建立的经验参数化方案(IMPROVE,S2)和基于神经网络(S3)的能见度预报效果。结果表明:基于多模式最优集成方法对PM2.5浓度和WRF4.0模式对相对湿度的预报效果均较好,相关系数达0.90。3种方案都对选取时段能见度的变化趋势有较好的预报,其中S1方案相关系数最高(0.85),均方根误差最小,预报效果最好;S1方案较S2方案平均偏差降低3.6 km;S1方案较S3方案预报效果的提升主要是在能见度大于10 km的范围内。PM2.5浓度预报效果对能见度预报效果的影响高于相对湿度,但在相对湿度大于70%的情况下,其预报效果对能见度预报效果的影响更大。

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2019-11-07
  • 刊出日期:  2020-05-20

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