黄河流域山西矿区自然资本占用动态评估及驱动机制

蒋毓琪; 杨怡康; 朱少英

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210327

黄河流域山西矿区自然资本占用动态评估及驱动机制

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210327

山西大同大学商学院

基金项目: 教育部人文社会科学研究规划青年基金项目（20YJC630052）；山西省哲学社会科学规划课题（2019B292）

详细信息

作者简介:
蒋毓琪（1983—），男，副教授，博士，长期从事资源与环境经济研究，jiangyuqi1913@163.com

通讯作者:
杨怡康（1990—），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为资源与环境经济，yangyikang1433@163.com

中图分类号: X321
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-13

Dynamic evaluation and driving mechanism of natural capital occupation in Shanxi mining areas of the Yellow River Basin

School of Business, Shanxi Datong University

摘要

摘要:
自然资本是经济社会绿色可持续发展的必要保障，对其进行评估是维持区域生态系统平衡的重要内容。以矿区自然资本为视角，运用三维生态足迹模型，测算黄河流域山西矿区生态足迹深度与广度并分析其变化特征，进一步阐释矿区生态占用动态演变的作用机理。结果表明：黄河流域山西矿区人均生态赤字由2010年的4.40 hm²/人增至2016年的6.31 hm²/人，随后降至2019年的5.02 hm²/人，生态足迹与生态承载力的差距总体趋于缩小。2010—2019年，人均生态足迹广度大致呈递减趋势，由0.63 hm²/人降到0.47 hm²/人，而人均生态足迹深度呈现出先增后减的倒U型变化趋势。黄河流域山西矿区自然资本时空动态演变过程的驱动机制是由生态环境供给、资源禀赋、社会发展、经济增长、能源损耗以及煤炭污染等诸多因素共同作用的结果。其中，煤炭污染、能源损耗、资源禀赋和经济增长中的第二产业增加值与矿区自然资本占用动态演变呈正相关，生态环境供给、社会发展中的环境规制指数与其呈负相关。总之，黄河流域山西矿区生态足迹与生态承载力的差距趋于缩小，但生态占用赤字仍然存在。
- 自然资本 /
- 三维生态足迹 /
- 矿区 /
- 黄河流域
Abstract:
Natural capital is a necessary guarantee for the green and sustainable development of the economy and society, and its assessment is an important part of maintaining the balance of the regional ecosystem. From the perspective of natural capital for the mining areas, a three-dimensional ecological footprint model was used to calculate the depth and breadth of the ecological footprint of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin, its dynamic evolution characteristics were analyzed, and the mechanism of the dynamic evolution of the ecological occupation of the mining areas was further explained. The results showed that: the per capita ecological deficit of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin increased from 4.40 hm² in 2010 to 6.31 hm² in 2016, and then decreased to 5.02 hm² in 2019. The gap between ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity tended to narrow overall. The breadth of the per capita ecological footprint generally showed a declining trend, from 0.63 hm² in 2020 to 0.47 hm² in 2019, and the depth of the per capita ecological footprint showed an inverted U-shaped change trend that first increased and then decreased. The driving mechanism of the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution process of natural capital in Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin was driven by many factors such as ecological environment supply, resource endowment, social development, economic growth, energy loss and coal pollution. The dynamic evolution of natural capital occupation was positively correlated with coal pollution, energy loss, resource endowment and the secondary industry added value of economic growth, and negatively correlated with ecological environment supply and the environmental regulations of social development. The gap between the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin tended to improve, but the ecological occupation deficit still existed.
- natural capital /
- three-dimensional ecological footprint /
- mining areas /
- Yellow River Basin

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图 1 山西矿区煤田分布

Figure 1. Coal resource distribution in Shanxi mining areas

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图 2 自然资本广度与深度的物理意义^[22]

Figure 2. Physical meanings of depth and size of natural capital

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图 3 2010—2019年黄河流域山西矿区人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力变化趋势

Figure 3. Change trend between per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019

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图 4 2010—2019年黄河流域山西矿区存量流量利用比

Figure 4. Utilization ratio of stock flows of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019

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图 5 黄河流域山西矿区生态占用演化的作用机理

Figure 5. Action mechanism of ecological occupation evolution of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin

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表 1 2019年黄河流域山西矿区不同土地利用类型面积

Table 1. Area of different land types in Shanxi mining areas of the Yellow River Basin in 2019 万hm²

土地利用类型	西山矿区	大同矿区	沁水矿区	宁武矿区	霍西矿区	河东矿区	均衡因子	产量因子
耕地	0.23	7.12	68.57	4.76	20.19	43.28	2.80	1.66
草地	6.88	3.00	29.35	7.44	13.20	32.10	0.50	0.91
林地	11.03	5.90	180.24	17.62	24.77	61.34	1.10	0.19
水域	0.22	0.21	1.49	0.16	0.37	0.62	0.20	1.00
建筑用地	0.18	0.62	11.07	0.37	1.68	6.21	2.80	0.60
化石能源用地	0.24	0.96	14.28	0.52	2.35	8.91	1.11	1.00
总计	18.78	17.81	305.00	30.87	62.56	152.46

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表 2 黄河流域山西矿区自然资本占用动态演变的驱动因素

Table 2. Driving factors of the dynamic evolution for ecological capital occupation in Shanxi mining areas of the Yellow River Basin

驱动因素	指标	自变量
生态环境供给	生态承载力	X₁
资源禀赋	煤炭开采规模	X₂
社会发展	城镇化率	X₃
	人口总数	X₄
	城镇居民人均可支配收入	X₅
	农民人均可支配收入	X₆
	环境规制综合指数^[27-28]	X₇
经济增长	第一产业增加值	X₈
	第二产业增加值	X₉
	第三产业增加值	X₁₀
	原煤产值在GDP中的占比	X₁₁
能源损耗	单位GDP能耗	X₁₂
煤炭污染	工业废水排放量	X₁₃
煤炭污染	工业二氧化硫排放量	X₁₄

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表 3 2010—2019年黄河流域山西矿区人均生态足迹深度与广度

Table 3. Per capita ecological footprint depth and size of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019 hm²/人　

年份	人均生态赤字	人均生态足迹广度	人均生态足迹深度
2010	4.40	0.63	7.98
2011	4.80	0.61	8.87
2012	5.22	0.56	10.32
2013	5.54	0.55	11.07
2014	5.71	0.53	11.77
2015	5.90	0.49	13.04
2016	6.31	0.44	15.34
2017	5.70	0.44	13.95
2018	5.42	0.46	12.78
2019	5.02	0.47	11.68

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表 4 2010—2019年黄河流域山西矿区足迹深度与足迹广度剪刀差

Table 4. Scissors difference between footprint depth and footprint size of Shanxi mining areas in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019

年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
剪刀差	1.13	1.25	1.38	1.43	1.47	1.51	1.56	−1.53	−1.50	−1.48

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表 5 PLS模型回归结果

Table 5. Regression results of PLS model

因变量	常数项	驱动因子
Y	4.753	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇
		−0.165	0.147	0.083	0.062	0.027	0.009	−0.110

		X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₄
		0.007	0.108	0.013	0.137	0.128	0.174	0.182

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