清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测

裴宏伟; 张红娟; 张良; 李雅丽; 张高伟; 刘孟竹

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341

清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341

裴宏伟^{1, 2,},
张红娟^{1, 2},
张良³,
李雅丽^{1, 2},
张高伟^{1, 2},
刘孟竹^{1, 2,}

1.
河北建筑工程学院市政与环境工程系
2.
河北省水质工程与水资源综合利用重点实验室
3.
河北省张家口水文勘测研究中心

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41701017）；河北省自然科学基金项目（D2020404001）；河北省水利厅水利科技计划(2021-22)；河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目（22377001D）

详细信息

作者简介:
裴宏伟(1987—)，男，副教授，博士，主要从事流域生态水文和城市生态学研究，hwpei@sjziam.ac.cn

中图分类号: X522,X826
计量
- 文章访问数: 377
- HTML全文浏览量: 205
- PDF下载量: 47
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-20

Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin

PEI Hongwei^{1, 2
,},
ZHANG Hongjuan^{1, 2},
ZHANG Liang³,
LI Yali^{1, 2},
ZHANG Gaowei^{1, 2},
LIU Mengzhu^{1, 2
,}

1.
Department of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Architecture
2.
Hebei Key Laboratory of Water Quality Engineering and Comprehensive Utilization of Water Resources
3.
Zhangjiakou Research Center for Hydrological Survey of Hebei Province

摘要

摘要:
城镇化扩张、农业活动和生态修复等人为因素给清水河流域土地格局和生态环境带来了显著改变，评估并预测未来的土地格局以及生态系统服务与价值对于流域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于CA-Markov模型和GIS软件，以预测+设计的方式通过InVEST模型模拟了未来生态系统服务与价值。结果显示：1）清水河流域2000—2018年单位面积碳储量、单位面积土壤保持量、单位面积产水量分别为100.68 t/hm²、800.62 t/hm²、57.88 mm，除碳储量呈减小趋势外，产水量和土壤保持量均呈增长趋势；2）2018年流域生态系统服务价值为24.42亿元，比2000年减少了2.2%，分别为该区2018年农林渔牧业总产值、GDP的2.31、0.78倍；3）未来在坡度大于15°的区域退耕还林条件下，除产水量显著减小外，流域碳储量、土壤保持量生态系统服务价值均显著提升。研究表明，近20年清水河流域在气候均质条件下，生态系统服务及其价值的提升仍然不显著甚至有所下降，但在大于15°陡坡上的植树造林措施能够有效改善这一趋势。
- 清水河流域 /
- 生态系统服务 /
- CA-Markov模型 /
- 退耕还林
Abstract:
Rapid urbanization, agricultural activities and ecological restoration significantly altered land-use pattern and eco-environments of Qingshui River Basin. It is critical for assessing and projecting the future land-use patterns, ecosystem service and its values for ecologically sustainable areas. Based on the CA-Markov model and GIS software, the future ecosystem service and its values were simulated by using InVEST model in the way of prediction plus design. The results showed that: 1) In 2000, 2009 and 2018, the average values of carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in Qingshui River Basin approached approximately 100.68 t/hm², 800.62 t/hm², and 57.88 mm, respectively, exhibiting the increasing trends in water yield and soil conservation except for carbon storage which had a decreasing trend. 2) The total ecosystem service values in the study area reached approximately 2.44 billion yuan in 2018, with a 2.2% decrease compared with the level in 2000. This value was 2.31 times of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and 0.78 times of local gross domestic product (GDP). 3) As “Grain for Green” practices were implemented in the regions with >15° slopes, the ecosystem service values of carbon storage and soil conservation got pronouncedly improved, whereas water yield exhibited an obvious decreased trend. The research showed that under the condition of a homogeneous climate in Qingshui River Basin in the last 20 years, the ecosystem service and its values had not significantly increased or even declined. Specifically, the afforestation practices on steep slopes of >15° may help reverse the trend of ecological degradation in Qingshui River Basin.
- Qingshui River Basin /
- ecosystem service /
- CA-Markov model /
- Grain for Green

HTML全文

图 1 清水河流域高程

Figure 1. Elevation of Qingshui River Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 研究技术路线

Figure 2. Research technology roadmap

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 清水河流域2000—2018年生态系统服务变化

Figure 3. Changes of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin from 2000 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 不同预测情景下2027年相较于2018年生态系统服务变化

注：S为自然发展情景；S1为退耕还林情景；S2为深度退耕还林情景；S3为退耕还草情景；S4为深度退耕还草情景。

Figure 4. Changes of ecosystem services in 2027 compared with 2018 under different forecast scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2000—2018年以及不同预测情景下单位面积生态系统服务价值的变化

Figure 5. Changes of ecosystem service values per unit area in 2000-2018 and under different forecast scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 清水河流域不同土地利用类型碳密度参数

Table 1. Carbon density parameters of land use types in Qingshui River Basin t/hm²　

土地利用类型	C_a	C_b	C_c	C_d
耕地	6.60	0.66	92.90	0
林地	29.66	9.79	110.75	1.68
草地	1.03	2.61	62.90	0.24
水域	2.29	0	17.16	0
建设用地	7.61	4.51	42.17	0

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 清水河流域不同土地利用类型单位面积的生态系统服务价值

Table 2. Ecosystem service values per unit area in different land use types in Qingshui River Basin 元/hm²　

生态系统服务类型		耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地
供给服务	食物生产	878.75	299.81	103.38	827.06	0
	原料生产	413.53	682.32	144.73	237.78	0
	水资源供应	20.68	351.50	82.71	8 570.37	0
	气体调节	692.66	2 243.39	527.25	796.04	0
调节服务	气候调节	372.18	6 719.83	1 385.32	2 367.45	0
	净化调节	103.38	1 995.27	454.88	5 737.70	0
	水文调节	279.13	4 900.31	1 013.14	105 697.76	0
	土壤保持	1 064.83	2 739.62	640.97	961.45	0
	维持养分循环	124.06	206.76	51.69	72.37	0
支持服务	生物多样性	134.40	2 491.51	578.94	2 636.24	0
文化服务	美学景观	62.03	1 095.85	258.46	1 953.92	0
合计		4 145.62	23 726.17	5 241.47	129 858.13	0

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 清水河流域不同力度生态修复措施下的土地利用情景

Table 3. Land use scenarios under different ecological restoration measures in Qingshui River Basin

情景	设计方法	相对变化（相较于2018年）
基础情景	以清水河流域2018年土地利用格局为基准	耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积分别为604.45、647.58、859.00、15.79、 71.40 km²
自然发展情景	通过CA-Markov模型模拟自然发展情景下的2027年清水河土地利用	耕地、建设用地面积增加42.04、12.34 km²，林地、草地、水域面积分别减少31.20、19.18、4.83 km²
退耕还林	高坡度的区域容易发生土壤侵蚀，基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，为了改善水土流失，将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为林地	耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少6.76、19.18、4.83 km²，林地、建设用地面积分别增加17.61、12.34 km²
深度退耕还林	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为林地	耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少165.13、19.18、4.83 km²，林地、建设用地面积分别增加175.98、12.34 km²
退耕还草	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为草地	耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少6.76、31.20、4.83 km²，草地、建设用地面积分别增加29.63、12.34 km²
深度退耕还草	基于预测的2027年土地利用数据，将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为草地	耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少165.13、31.20、4.83 km²，草地、建设用地面积分别增加188.00、12.34 km²

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 清水河流域单位面积生态系统服务变化

Table 4. Changes of ecosystem services per unit in Qingshui River Basin

年份	单位面积碳储量/(t/hm²)	单位面积土壤保持量/(t/hm²)	产水量/ mm
2000	101.38	800.29	56.305
2009	100.47	800.76	57.855
2018	100.28	800.83	59.492

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(21)

[1]	傅伯杰, 张立伟.土地利用变化与生态系统服务: 概念、方法与进展[J]. 地理科学进展,2014,33(4):441-446. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.001 FU B J, ZHANG L W. Land-use change and ecosystem services: concepts, methods and progress[J]. Progress in Geography,2014,33(4):441-446. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.001
[2]	Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis[M]. Washington DC: Island Press, 2005.
[3]	IPBES. IPBES global assessment summary for policymakers[EB/OL]. [2021-06-10]. https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summa-ry-policymakers-pdf.
[4]	吴炳方, 曾源, 闫娜娜, 等.生态系统遥感: 内涵与挑战[J]. 遥感学报,2020,24(6):609-617. WU B F, ZENG Y, YAN N N, et al. Remote sensing for ecosystem: definition and prospects[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing,2020,24(6):609-617.
[5]	OUYANG Z Y, ZHENG H, XIAO Y, et al. Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital[J]. Science,2016,352(6292):1455-1459. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf2295
[6]	BATEMAN I J, HARWOOD A R, MACE G M, et al. Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom[J]. Science,2013,341(6141):45-50. doi: 10.1126/science.1234379
[7]	LAWLER J J, LEWIS D J, NELSON E, et al. Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(20):7492-7497. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1405557111
[8]	SANNIGRAHI S, BHATT S, RAHMAT S, et al. Estimating global ecosystem service values and its response to land surface dynamics during 1995-2015[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2018,223:115-131.
[9]	COSTANZA R, de GROOT R, SUTTON P, et al. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services[J]. Global Environmental Change,2014,26:152-158. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002
[10]	李付杰, 孙倩莹, 王世曦, 等.2000—2015年三江源区生态系统服务评估[J]. 环境工程技术学报,2020,10(5):786-797. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20200059 LI F J, SUN Q Y, WANG S X, et al. Valuation of ecosystem services in Three-river Headwaters Region from 2000 to 2015[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2020,10(5):786-797. doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20200059
[11]	彭建, 胡晓旭, 赵明月, 等.生态系统服务权衡研究进展: 从认知到决策[J]. 地理学报,2017,72(6):960-973. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201706002 PENG J, HU X X, ZHAO M Y, et al. Research progress on ecosystem service trade-offs: from cognition to decision-making[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6):960-973. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201706002
[12]	BAI Y, OCHUODHO T O, YANG J. Impact of land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Kentucky, USA[J]. Ecological Indicators,2019,102:51-64. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.01.079
[13]	王培俊, 孙煌, 华宝龙, 等.福州市滨海地区生态系统服务价值评估与动态模拟[J]. 农业机械学报,2020,51(3):249-257. doi: 10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2020.03.029 WANG P J, SUN H, HUA B L, et al. Evaluation and dynamic simulation of ecosystem service value in coastal area of Fuzhou City[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(3):249-257. doi: 10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2020.03.029
[14]	PEI H W, LIU M Z, SHEN Y J, et al. Quantifying impacts of climate dynamics and land-use changes on water yield service in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2022,809:151153. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151153
[15]	LIU M Z, JIA Y G, ZHAO J J, et al. Revegetation projects significantly improved ecosystem service values in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China in recent 20 years[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2021,788:147756. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147756
[16]	刘孟竹, 张红娟, 杨佳, 等.海河上游清水河流域土地利用变化特征[J]. 水土保持通报,2020,40(3):147-154. doi: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.03.021 LIU M Z, ZHANG H J, YANG J, et al. Characteristics of land use change in Qingshui River watershed in upper reaches of Haihe River[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,40(3):147-154. doi: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.03.021
[17]	WANG Z L, YA S Y, PU H X, et al. Simulation of spatiotemporal variation of land use in mountainous-urban fringes based on improved CA-Markov model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2020,36(16):239-248.
[18]	李瑾璞, 夏少霞, 于秀波, 等.基于InVEST模型的河北省陆地生态系统碳储量研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报,2020,36(7):854-861. LI J P, XIA S X, YU X B, et al. Evaluation of carbon storage on terrestrial ecosystem in Hebei Province based on InVEST model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2020,36(7):854-861.
[19]	谢高地, 张彩霞, 张昌顺, 等.中国生态系统服务的价值[J]. 资源科学,2015,37(9):1740-1746. XIE G D, ZHANG C X, ZHANG C S, et al. The value of ecosystem services in China[J]. Resources Science,2015,37(9):1740-1746.
[20]	XIE G D, ZHANG C X, ZHEN L, et al. Dynamic changes in the value of China's ecosystem services[J]. Ecosystem Services,2017,26:146-154. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.06.010
[21]	姜栋栋, 马伟波, 邹凤丽, 等.乡镇尺度大娄山区生态系统服务价值时空变化研究[J]. 环境科学研究,2020,33(12):2713-2723. JIANG D D, MA W B, ZOU F L, et al. Spatiotemporal changes of ecosystem service value in Dalou Mountain Area at township scale[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences,2020,33(12):2713-2723. ◇