基于物质流模型的长三角城市群食物生产与消费系统氮素流动格局及影响因素

董莉; 邹天森; 徐睿; 张泽乾; 杨鹊平

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210732

基于物质流模型的长三角城市群食物生产与消费系统氮素流动格局及影响因素

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210732

董莉^1,,
邹天森^{1, 2, 3},
徐睿^{1, 2},
张泽乾^{1, 2, 3},
杨鹊平^{1, 2, ,}

1.
中国环境科学研究院
2.
国家长江生态环境保护修复联合研究中心
3.
北京师范大学水科学研究院

基金项目: 长江生态环境保护修复联合研究项目（第一期）（2019-LHYJ-01）

详细信息

作者简介:
董莉(1988—)，女，助理研究员，硕士，主要从事物质代谢、循环经济等研究，dongli@craes.org.cn

通讯作者:
杨鹊平(1981—)，女，工程师，硕士，主要从事环境政策管理、水污染防治等研究，yangqp@craes.org.cn

中图分类号: X21, X52
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- 文章访问数: 354
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-11-19
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-20

Nitrogen flow pattern and influencing factors of food production and consumption system in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster based on material flow model

DONG Li^1
,,
ZOU Tiansen^{1, 2, 3},
XU Rui^{1, 2},
ZHANG Zeqian^{1, 2, 3},
YANG Queping^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
2.
National Joint Research Center for Yangtze River Conservation
3.
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University

摘要

摘要:
作为区域社会经济发展的重要增长极，城市群食物生产与消费系统活性氮的释放对区域氮素循环格局有着重要影响。采用物质流分析模型，定量分析2019年长三角城市群农田种植、畜禽养殖、水产养殖和人类消费子系统的氮素流动格局，评估各子系统氮素损失的结构，阐明氮素损失的空间分布，并探究氮素损失强度的主要影响因素。结果表明，系统总体氮输入为3 472.56 Gg/a，最大氮素输入项为化肥输入；系统总体氮输出为3 061.29 Gg/a，主要表现为氮素损失，占90.9%。农田种植、畜禽养殖和水产养殖子系统的氮素利用效率分别为42.6%、30.8%和40.1%。农田种植子系统对系统氮素损失的贡献最大，为1 325.53 Gg/a，占比为47.6%；其后依次为人类消费子系统、畜禽养殖子系统和水产养殖子系统。长三角各城市氮素损失强度空间异质性较大，上海、扬州、盐城较高，分别为26.43、23.20和22.26 kg/hm²；杭州、宣城、池州较低，分别为6.14、5.83和4.55 kg/hm²。氮素损失强度空间异质性与经济、人口、农业生产和土地利用等因素的相关性具有统计学意义（P<0.05或0.01），相关系数为0.42~0.76。
- 物质流 /
- 施氮强度 /
- 氮素利用效率 /
- 氮素损失 /
- 面源 /
- 氮径流 /
- 氮淋洗 /
- 氨挥发
Abstract:
As an important growth pole, the release of reactive nitrogen from food production and consumption system of city clusters greatly affects regional nitrogen cycle. The material flow analysis model was introduced to quantitatively analyze the nitrogen flow patterns among cropland, livestock, aquaculture and human consumption subsystems in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster in 2019. The structure of nitrogen loss to the environment from each subsystem, the spatial distribution of nitrogen loss, and the main influencing factors of nitrogen loss intensity were also investigated. The results indicated that the total nitrogen input to the food production and consumption system was 3 472.56 Gg/a. The largest component of the total nitrogen input came from fertilizer application. The total nitrogen output from the system was 3 061.29 Gg/a, mainly represented by nitrogen loss (90.9%). The nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of cropland, livestock, and aquaculture subsystems was 42.6%, 30.8%, and 40.1%, respectively. Moreover, nitrogen loss from cropland subsystem was the highest, which was 1 325.53 Gg/a, accounting for 47.6% of the total nitrogen loss, followed by that from human consumption subsystem, livestock subsystem and aquaculture subsystem. The spatial heterogeneity of nitrogen loss intensity among cities in the Yangtze River Delta was significant. Shanghai, Yangzhou and Yancheng rank the top three in terms of nitrogen loss intensity, which was 26.43, 23.20 and 22.26 kg/hm², respectively, while the nitrogen loss intensity of Hangzhou, Xuancheng and Chizhou was low, being 6.14, 5.83 and 4.55 kg/hm², respectively. The result of Pearson correlation analysis showed that the spatial heterogeneity of nitrogen loss intensity was significantly correlated with factors including economy, population, agricultural production, and land use (P<0.05 or 0.01), with the correlation coefficients ranging from 0.42 to 0.76.
- material flow /
- nitrogen application intensity /
- nitrogen use efficiency /
- nitrogen loss /
- non-point source /
- nitrogen run off /
- nitrogen leaching /
- ammonia volatilization

HTML全文

图 1 食物生产与消费系统氮素流动框架模型

Figure 1. Nitrogen flow framework for the food production and consumption system

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图 2 2019年长三角城市群食物生产与消费系统各子系统氮输入和氮输出

Figure 2. Nitrogen inputs and outputs in subsystems of food production and consumption system in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster in 2019

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图 3 食物生产与消费系统氮素损失路径

Figure 3. Nitrogen loss paths to the environment from food production and consumption system

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图 4 食物生产与消费系统氮素损失空间分布

Figure 4. Spatial distribution pattern of nitrogen losses to the environment from food production and consumption system

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图 5 氮素损失强度与社会经济因素皮尔逊相关分析

注：^*代表P≤0.05；^**代表P≤0.01。NL—氮素损失强度；GDP—国内生产总值；GDPC—人均国内生产总值；GDPA—单位面积国内生产总值；POP—人口数量；POPD—人口密度；UR—城镇化率；FI—化肥施用强度；LD—单位面积畜禽养殖数量；PCL—耕地面积占比；FCR—森林覆盖率。

Figure 5. Pearson correlation analysis between nitrogen loss intensity and local socioeconomic factors

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图 6 长三角城市群土地利用情况

注：数据来源于国家基础地理信息中心全球地表覆盖数据产品服务网站（DOI：10.11769）。

Figure 6. Land use types of the Yangtze River Delta city cluster

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表 1 本研究与其他研究子系统划分和指标设置情况对比

Table 1. Comparison of subsystem division and index setting between this study and other studies

研究对象	子系统划分	主要指标设置
北京市食物系统氮磷流动^[15]	作物生产、畜禽生产、家庭消费、废物管理	作物生产：谷类、蔬菜、水果禽畜生产：猪、奶牛、肉牛、蛋鸡、肉鸡和绵羊家庭消费：谷物、大豆、蔬菜、水果、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、牛奶、鸡蛋，分农村和城市
南京市食物生产消费活性氮通量变化及效率^[16]	作物生产、动物生产、家庭消费、废物管理	作物生产：小麦、大麦、豆类、稻谷、玉米、薯类、花生、油菜、芝麻、棉花、麻类、蔬菜、瓜果、甘蔗动物生产：牛、猪、羊、禽、兔食物消费：粮食、植物油、蔬菜、猪肉、牛羊肉、蛋类、水产品、水果、糕点、酸奶、豆制品、家禽，分农村和城市
上海市食物生产与消费系统氮素流动^[19]	农田生产、禽畜养殖、食物消费	农田生产：水稻、小麦、玉米、豆类、薯类、花生、油菜、棉花、蔬菜、瓜果、芝麻、甘蔗禽畜养殖：猪、肉牛、家禽、羊、兔食物消费：粮食、蔬菜、瓜果、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、禽肉、蛋类、奶类、食用油、糖类，分农村和城市
人类生产和消费驱动下的广州市活性氮流动^[21]	农田、城市绿地、牲畜、森林、水产养殖、工业、人类、污水处理、垃圾处理、地表水、地下水、大气	农田：大米、土豆、大豆、甘蔗、花生、棉花、烟草、蔬菜、香蕉、柑橘、菠萝、瓜类、荔枝、龙眼、枣、大麻、茶牲畜：猪、牛、羊、家禽、兔子、马、鸟、鸡、鸭、鹅水产：水产品产量人类：粮食消费、畜禽产品消费和水产消费，分城市和农村
长三角城市群食物生产与消费系统氮素流动（本研究）	农田种植、畜禽养殖、水产养殖、人类消费、废物管理、环境支持	农田种植：水稻、小麦、玉米、豆类、薯类、花生、油菜籽、棉花、甘蔗、蔬菜和水果畜禽养殖：猪、牛、羊、兔、禽水产养殖：鱼、蟹和虾，考虑水产养殖和水产捕捞人类消费：谷物、蔬菜、水果、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、禽肉、鸡蛋、牛奶和水产，同时考虑家庭饮食和外出就餐，分城市和农村

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表 2 不同国家和地区食物生产与消费系统氮素利用效率对比

Table 2. Comparison of NUEs in food production and consumption systems in different countries and areas

子系统名称	国家/地区	年份	NUE/%
农田种植子系统	长江中下游城市群^[46]	2011	22.6
	广州^[21]	2015	25.0
	中国^[42]	2010	39.0
	美国^[47]		65.0
	欧洲^[47]		61.0
	加拿大^[48]	2016	50.8
	本研究	2019	42.6
畜禽养殖子系统	长江中下游城市群^[46]	2011	7.9
	中国^[42]	2010	16.0
	加拿大^[48]	2016	22.8
	本研究	2019	30.8
水产养殖子系统	长江中下游城市群^[46]	2011	27.7
	中国^[49]	2010	11.7~27.7
	本研究	2019	40.1

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表 3 食物生产与消费系统主要氮流的不确定性分析

Table 3. Uncertainty analysis of main nitrogen flows in food production and consumption system

项目	子系统名称	氮流通量(M±SD)^1）/(Gg/a)	不确定性/%
氮输入	农田种植子系统	2 756.98±184.72	±6.7
	畜禽养殖子系统	689.23±84.09	±12.2
	水产养殖子系统	554.43±57.66	±10.4
	人类消费子系统	971.02±101.96	±10.5
氮输出	农田种植子系统	2 434.80±87.65	±3.6
	畜禽养殖子系统	680.55±53.76	±7.9
	水产养殖子系统	489.91±52.91	±10.8
	人类消费子系统	955.13±80.23	±8.4
氮累积	农田种植子系统	322.18±205.22	±63.7
	畜禽养殖子系统	8.68±1.77	±20.4
	水产养殖子系统	64.52±78.32	±121.4
1）M±SD为误差传播方程计算的氮流通量的平均值及标准差。

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