Analysis of natural capital sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration based on two-dimensional and three-dimensional ecological footprint models
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摘要:
城镇化和工业化进程的不断推进给城市群自然资本及其可持续利用带来较大的威胁。为明确城市群建设过程中自然资本可持续性变化特征，以长三角城市群为研究对象，采用二维和三维生态足迹评价模型，同时添加水资源账户对原模型进行改进以反映长三角地区水资源潜力与压力，研究分析了2005—2019年长三角城市群生态足迹、生态压力指数和生态协调指数变化、自然资本存量消耗和自然资本流量占用情况及其影响因素与作用机制。结果表明：1）研究期间，长三角城市群人均生态足迹和生态承载力分别为4.46和1.59 hm2/人，平均人均生态赤字为2.87 hm2/人，但万元GDP生态足迹不断下降，资源利用率不断上升；2）2005—2019年，长三角城市群生态压力指数由2.48升至3.25，生态协调指数由1.30变为1.25；3）基于改进三维生态足迹模型发现，长三角城市群资本存量利用程度越来越大，且对自然资本流量的更新起到较大抑制作用，2019年研究区自然资本存量的消耗量是资本流量占有量的2.26倍；4）影响因子分析表明，工业产值、能源消耗总量、建筑用地面积和城镇化率对生态足迹起到了正向促进作用，对自然资本的可持续性产生了较大压力。
Abstract:The continuous advancement of urbanization and industrialization has greatly threatened the natural capital and its sustainable utilization in urban agglomeration. In order to clarify the characteristics of natural capital sustainability changes during the construction process of urban agglomerations, taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations as an example, two-dimensional and three-dimensional ecological footprint models were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint, ecological pressure index (EPI) and ecological economic coordination index (EECI), the natural capital stock consumption and natural capital flow occupancy, as well as the influencing factors and its related mechanisms, by adding the water resources account to the adapted ecological footprint model to reflect the water resource potential and demand in this area. The results showed that during the study period, the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were 4.46 hm2/person and 1.59 hm2/person, respectively; and the average per capita ecological deficit was 2.87 hm2/person; however, the ecological footprint per unit GDP continued to decline, indicating that the utilization rate of resources continued to rise. From 2005 to 2019, the EPI value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased from 2.48 to 3.25, and the EECI value fell from 1.30 to 1.25. Based on the revised three-dimensional ecological footprint model, it was found that the use of natural capital stock in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was increasing, and it had a significant inhibitory effect on the renewal of natural capital flows, and the consumption of natural capital stock was 2.26 times of capital flow in 2019, with the resource consumption occupied. The impact factors analysis showed that the industrial output value, total energy consumption, construction land area and urbanization rate played positive roles in promoting the ecological footprint and exerted greater pressure on the sustainability of natural capital. The relationships among the ecological pressure level, ecological environmental and economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were quantitatively analyzed to provide a scientific basis and decision support for improving the ecological security and sustainable development of urban agglomerations.
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图 1 2005—2019年长三角城市群ef、ec、ed变化
Figure 1. Changes in per capita ecological footprint, ecological capacity, and ecological deficit of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2019
图 2 2005—2019年长三角城市群不同用地子账户ef和ec变化
Figure 2. Analysis of changes in ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of different sub-accounts in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2019
图 3 2005—2019年长三角城市群可持续发展指数变化分析
Figure 3. Analysis of changes in the sustainability index of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2019
图 4 2005—2019年长三角城市群三维生态足迹及增长率动态变化
Figure 4. Dynamic changes of the three-dimensional ecological footprint and growth rate of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2019
图 5 2005—2019年长三角城市群万元GDP生态足迹变化
Figure 5. Dynamic changes in the ecological footprint of 10 000 yuan GDP in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2019
图 6 长三角城市群各自然资本可持续利用指标影响因子相关矩阵分析
注：*表示在P<0.05水平上显著相关；**表示在P<0.01水平上显著相关。
Figure 6. Correlation matrix analysis diagram of the impact indicators of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
表 1 生态压力指数分级
Table 1. The scale of ecological pressure index
生态安全等级 EPI 安全等级 1 ≤0.5 十分安全 2 0.5~0.8 较安全 3 0.81~1.00 一般 4 1.01~1.50 不安全 5 1.51~2.00 很不安全 6 >2.00 极不安全 
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表 2 数据来源及说明
Table 2. Data source and description
项目 指标选取 数据来源 社会、经济、人口、消费
数据GDP、常住人口、工业产值、
固定资产投资、财政收入、
城镇居民收入、城镇化率各省市统计年鉴 生物资源
数据耕地：粮食、蔬菜、棉花、
瓜果、油料等作物产量
林地：水果、茶叶、木材、
油茶籽、油桐籽等林产品产量
草地：猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、
禽肉、禽蛋、奶类产品产量
水域：水产品产量各省市统计年鉴 能源消耗
数据化石燃料：煤炭、焦炭、原油、
汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、
天然气消耗量
能源动力：电力使用量《中国能源统计
年鉴》土地利用
数据各地类土地利用面积 自然资源部网站及
《自然资源与环境统计年鉴》水资源数据 生活、生产及生态环境
用水量和水资源总量各省市水资源公报
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