Comparative study on carbon dioxide peaking in some countries and regions and its enlightenment to China
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摘要:
21世纪以来，中国碳排放量持续处于上升阶段。2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和目标已明确，如何按期实现，面临着诸多挑战。截至2020年，全球约有50个国家实现能源活动二氧化碳排放达峰，排放总量约占全球排放量的36%。从经济水平、产业结构、工业化城镇化水平、能源消费情况、政策支持等角度，以比较分析法对发达国家和地区碳达峰进展进行梳理概述，结果表明：主要国家和地区碳达峰时人均GDP在1万美元以上，美国和日本均在3万美元以上；绝大多数国家和地区碳达峰前后第二产业占比稳步下降，第三产业占比逐步上升；主要国家和地区碳达峰时城镇化率均在53%以上，且1/2以上国家和地区达到75%以上；主要国家和地区碳达峰时能源消费强度多在1.0~4.7 t/万美元（以标准煤计）。从发布的中长期碳排放发展战略及碳中和目标角度，深入论证发达国家和地区实现深度脱碳、开展碳中和方面的经验，指出绝大多数国家和地区均将控制能源消费总量和能源低碳转型作为实现碳中和的重点；将发展循环经济、提升能效作为实现能源消费总量控制的具体措施；将科技创新作为战略竞争优势的重要研究领域和持续动力。结合能源消费情况，中国从碳达峰到碳中和时间仅约30年，意味未来碳达峰后，碳中和任务重。这要求中国的碳达峰不是单纯地攀高峰，而是理性地低位达峰。需加大力度推动经济产业结构调整，构建清洁低碳安全高效能源系统，强化绿色低碳技术的研发创新，有序推进碳排放权交易市场建设。
Abstract:Since the 21st century, China's carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise. The country has determined the goal of carbon dioxide peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. There are many challenges in how to achieve it on schedule. By 2020, about 50 countries in the world had reached the target of carbon dioxide peaking, of which the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions accounted for about 36% of global emissions. The progress of carbon dioxide peaking in developed countries and regions was compared and analyzed, from the perspectives of economic level, industrial structure, industrialization and urbanization level, energy consumption, policy support and so on. The results showed that: at the peak of carbon dioxide emissions, the per capita GDP of major countries and regions was more than 10 000 US dollars, and that of the United States and Japan was more than 30 000 US dollars. In most countries and regions, the proportion of the secondary industry decreased steadily, and the proportion of the tertiary industry increased gradually during the period of carbon dioxide peaking. When the major countries and regions achieved the goals of carbon dioxide peaking, the urbanization rate was more than 53%, and more than half of the countries and regions reached more than 75%. When the major countries and regions achieved the goals of carbon dioxide peaking, the consumption intensity of energy was mostly between 1.0 to 4.7 tons of standard coal per 10 000 US dollars. From the perspective of the released medium and long-term carbon dioxide emission development strategy and carbon neutralization goal, the experience of developed countries and regions achieving deep decarbonization and carbon neutralization was expounded in depth. It was pointed out that the vast majority of countries and regions had put the control of the total amount of energy consumption and the transformation of low-carbon energy as their strategic focus, taken the development of the circular economy and the improvement of the energy efficiency as specific measures, and taken the S&T innovation as an important field and continuous motivation. According to the consumption of energy in China, the period from carbon dioxide peaking to carbon neutrality was only 30 years, which meant that after reaching the goal of carbon dioxide peaking, the task of carbon neutrality would be very heavy. This required that China's carbon dioxide peaking should not be simply climbing the peak, but a rational low peak. China needed to make greater efforts to promote the adjustment of economic and industrial structure, build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, strengthen the R&D and innovation of clean and low-carbon technologies, and orderly promote the construction of carbon emission trading market.
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Key words:
- carbon dioxide peaking /
- carbon neutrality /
- clean energy /
- low-carbon
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图 1 美国碳达峰前10年GDP增长率
Figure 1. GDP growth rate of the United States in the decade before carbon dioxide peaking
图 2 日本碳达峰前10年GDP增长率
Figure 2. GDP growth rate of Japan in the decade before carbon dioxide peaking
图 3 欧盟部分国家碳达峰前10年GDP增长率
Figure 3. GDP growth rates of some EU countries in the decade before carbon dioxide peaking
图 4 部分碳达峰国家和地区碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线比较
Figure 4. Comparison of Environmental Kuznets Curves of carbon dioxide emissions in some countries and regions with carbon dioxide peaking
图 5 中国能源消费总量及预测
注：数据来源于国家统计局网站（
http://www.stats.gov.cn/ ）。Figure 5. Total energy consumption of China
图 6 中国与世界平均能源消费结构比较
注：数据来源于国家统计局网站（
http://www.stats.gov.cn/ ）。Figure 6. Comparison of energy consumption structure between China and the average data of the world
图 7 2020年分行业煤炭消费情况
注：数据来源于国家统计局网站（
http://www.stats.gov.cn/ ）。Figure 7. Coal consumption of various industries in 2020
表 1 主要国家和地区碳达峰时间
Table 1. Time of carbon dioxide peaking in major countries and regions
时间 国家和地区 1970—1979年 瑞典、英国、加蓬、比利时、法国 1980—1989年 匈牙利、瑙鲁、保加利亚、波兰、朝鲜、罗马尼亚 1990—1999年 德国、捷克、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、斯洛伐克、乌克兰、津巴布韦、丹麦、北马其顿 2000年至今 法罗群岛、葡萄牙、芬兰、意大利、日本、奥地利、希腊、美国、爱尔兰、西班牙、澳大利亚 
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表 2 主要国家和地区碳达峰时第三产业占比
Table 2. Proportion of tertiary industry in major countries and regions with carbon dioxide peaking
碳达峰时第三产业占比/% 主要国家和地区 60及以上 美国、希腊、意大利、葡萄牙、西班牙等 50~59 法国、爱尔兰、塞尔维亚、奥地利 40~49 日本、芬兰、德国、罗马尼亚
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表 3 主要国家和地区碳达峰时人口增长率
Table 3. Population growth rate in major countries and regions with carbon dioxide peaking
国家和
地区人口增长
率/%国家和
地区人口增长
率/%国家和
地区人口增长
率/%美国 0.92 德国 0.73 意大利 0.65 法国 0.41 英国 0.42 日本 −0.02
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表 4 承诺碳中和目标年的国家和地区
Table 4. Target year of countries and regions committed to carbon neutrality
承诺性质 2030—
2035年2040—
2045年2050年 2060年 21世纪后期 法律规定 瑞典 英国、法国、匈牙利、
丹麦、新西兰、德国立法草案 西班牙、智利、斐济 政策宣示 冰岛、奥地利 加拿大、韩国、日本、
南非、瑞士、葡萄牙中国 提交联合国的长期战略 乌拉圭 斯洛伐克、哥斯达黎加、马绍尔群岛 新加坡 执政党政府工作计划 芬兰 爱尔兰、美国其他州* 行政命令 美国加州 注：*表示拜登竞选网站公布的《清洁能源革命和环境正义计划》中提到2050年之前，美国实现100%的清洁能源经济和净零排放。
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