Spatio-temporal characteristics and prediction of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in Lijiang River basin
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摘要:
评估生态系统碳储量,对区域生态管理具有重要意义。利用InVEST模型和PLUS模型,基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地利用预测数据,研究2000-2020年漓江流域土地利用变化和碳储量时空特征,并预测未来不同发展情景下碳储量的变化。结果表明:2000-2020年漓江流域土地利用变化表现为耕地、林地和草地面积减少,水域、建设用地和未利用地面积增加;受土地利用变化的影响,2000-2020年漓江流域碳储量减少了0.945×106 t,其中2015-2020年减幅最大;碳储量高的区域主要分布在流域西北、西南及东部高海拔地区,碳储量低的区域主要分布在流域中部平原地区且2000-2020年明显扩大,流域内的临桂区、兴安县和灵川县碳储量减少较为显著。预测2030年漓江流域在自然发展情景下碳储量会进一步下降,耕地保护情景下碳储量相较自然发展情景增加0.345×106 t,生态保护情景下碳储量比自然发展情景、耕地保护情景分别增加1.540×106、1.195×106 t。耕地保护情景能够保护耕地数量,但建设用地扩张受到较大限制;生态保护情景能够增强固碳能力,但不能有效控制耕地面积的缩减。未来漓江流域国土空间规划需综合统筹生态保护和耕地保护措施,提升区域碳汇能力,实现绿色可持续发展。
Abstract:Evaluating ecosystem carbon storage is of great significance to regional ecological management. Using InVEST model and PLUS model, based on the interpreted land use data and future land use forecast data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 were studied, and the variation of carbon storage in different future scenarios was predicted. The results showed that land use change in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 was manifested in the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the increase in the area of water, construction land and unused land. Under the influence of land use change, the carbon storage in Lijiang River basin decreased by 0.945×106 t from 2000 to 2020, among which the decrease was the largest from 2015 to 2020. The high carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the high altitude area of the northwest, southwest and east of the basin, while the low carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the central plain of the basin and obviously expanded from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon reserves of Lingui, Xing'an and Lingchuan counties in the basin decreased significantly. According to prediction, the carbon storage of Lijiang River basin would further decrease under the natural development scenario in 2030, the carbon storage under the cultivated land protection scenario would increase by 0.345 × 106 t compared with the natural development scenario, and the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario would increase by 1.540 × 106 and 1.195×106 t compared with the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario, respectively. The cultivated land protection scenario could protect the amount of cultivated land, but the expansion of construction land was limited to a great extent; the ecological protection scenario could enhance carbon sequestration capacity, but could not effectively control the reduction of cultivated land area. In the future national land spatial planning of Lijiang River basin, ecological protection and cultivated land protection measures needed to be comprehensively coordinated to enhance the regional carbon sequestration capacity and achieve green and sustainable development.
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Key words:
- land use change /
- carbon storage /
- PLUS model /
- InVEST model /
- Lijiang River basin
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表 1 漓江流域碳密度
Table 1. Carbon density in Lijiang River basin
t/hm2 表 2 不同时段各类土地利用类型面积变化
Table 2. Changes in the area of various types of land in different time periods
km2 年份区间 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设用地 未利用地 2000—2005 −5.756 −2.727 −2.467 0.468 10.603 0.014 2005—2010 −9.789 12.534 −19.619 8.265 8.235 0.393 2010—2015 −17.059 −19.671 0.484 3.209 31.078 1.821 2015—2020 −60.469 −33.278 −14.940 14.272 95.676 −1.086 2000—2020 −93.074 −43.142 −36.542 26.213 145.592 1.141 表 3 2000—2020年漓江流域土地转移矩阵结果
Table 3. Results of land transfer matrix in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020
km2 土地利用
类型耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地未利
用地耕地 3 421.710 80.006 18.209 18.105 101.625 0.161 林地 82.576 11 314.903 54.046 15.785 37.124 1.023 草地 19.608 58.763 1 646.417 5.242 28.085 0.016 水域 6.540 4.721 1.497 168.255 1.562 0.004 建设用地 16.300 3.645 1.460 1.402 340.531 0.005 未利用地 0.001 0.070 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.055 表 4 漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量
Table 4. Carbon storage of different land use types in Lijiang River basin
106 t 年份 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设用地 未利用地 2000 23.157 194.366 13.465 0.095 1.591 0.007 2020 22.565 193.637 13.185 0.109 2.228 0.011 表 5 2000—2020年漓江流域各土地利用类型转化下的碳储量变化
Table 5. Changes in carbon storage under the transformation of various land use types in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020
土地利用类型转化 面积/km2 碳储量变化/万t 耕地-林地 80.006 84.214 耕地-草地 18.209 2.353 耕地-水域 18.105 −10.577 耕地-建设用地 101.625 −20.162 耕地-未利用地 0.161 −0.046 林地-耕地 82.576 −86.920 林地-草地 54.046 −49.906 林地-水域 15.785 −25.837 林地-建设用地 37.124 −46.442 林地-未利用地 1.023 −1.372 草地-耕地 19.608 −2.533 草地-林地 58.763 54.262 草地-水域 5.242 −3.740 草地-建设用地 28.085 −9.201 草地-未利用地 0.016 −0.006 水域-耕地 6.540 3.820 水域-林地 4.721 7.728 水域-草地 1.497 1.068 水域-建设用地 1.562 0.603 水域-未利用地 0.004 0.001 建设用地-耕地 16.300 3.234 建设用地-林地 3.645 4.559 建设用地-草地 1.460 0.478 建设用地-水域 1.402 −0.541 建设用地-未利用地 0.005 0.000 未利用地-耕地 0.001 0.000 未利用地-林地 0.070 0.094 未利用地-草地 0.000 0.000 表 6 不同情景下2030年漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量
Table 6. Carbon storage of different land use in Lijiang River basin under different scenarios in 2030
106 t 土地利用类型 不同情景下碳储量 自然发展情景 耕地保护情景 生态保护情景 耕地 22.203 23.162 22.203 林地 192.806 192.684 194.683 草地 13.068 13.068 13.068 水域 0.116 0.098 0.096 建设用地 2.699 2.225 2.384 未利用地 0.011 0.011 0.009 合计 230.903 231.248 232.443 -
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