漓江流域陆地生态系统碳储量时空特征与预测

魏玺; 邵亚; 蔡湘文; 林珍铭; 肖连刚; 刘泽昊

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220378

漓江流域陆地生态系统碳储量时空特征与预测

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220378

1.
桂林理工大学地球科学学院
2.
桂林理工大学旅游与风景园林学院
3.
华北水利水电大学测绘与地理信息学院

基金项目: 桂林市科学技术研究开发项目(20190217-2)；桂林理工大学博士科研启动基金项目；广西隐伏金属矿产勘查重点实验室资助项目

详细信息

作者简介:
魏玺(1998—)，男，硕士研究生，主要从事土地资源管理研究，2092388157@qq.com

通讯作者:
蔡湘文（1973—），男，副教授，博士，主要从事土地资源管理研究，598196224@qq.com

中图分类号: X171.1
计量
- 文章访问数: 503
- HTML全文浏览量: 317
- PDF下载量: 79
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-04-22

Spatio-temporal characteristics and prediction of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in Lijiang River basin

1.
School of Earth Sciences, Guilin University of Technology
2.
College of Tourism and Landscape Architecture, Guilin University of Technology
3.
School of Surveying, Mapping and Geographic Information, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

摘要

摘要:
评估生态系统碳储量，对区域生态管理具有重要意义。利用InVEST模型和PLUS模型，基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地利用预测数据，研究2000－2020年漓江流域土地利用变化和碳储量时空特征，并预测未来不同发展情景下碳储量的变化。结果表明：2000－2020年漓江流域土地利用变化表现为耕地、林地和草地面积减少，水域、建设用地和未利用地面积增加；受土地利用变化的影响，2000－2020年漓江流域碳储量减少了0.945×10⁶ t，其中2015－2020年减幅最大；碳储量高的区域主要分布在流域西北、西南及东部高海拔地区，碳储量低的区域主要分布在流域中部平原地区且2000－2020年明显扩大，流域内的临桂区、兴安县和灵川县碳储量减少较为显著。预测2030年漓江流域在自然发展情景下碳储量会进一步下降，耕地保护情景下碳储量相较自然发展情景增加0.345×10⁶ t，生态保护情景下碳储量比自然发展情景、耕地保护情景分别增加1.540×10⁶、1.195×10⁶ t。耕地保护情景能够保护耕地数量，但建设用地扩张受到较大限制；生态保护情景能够增强固碳能力，但不能有效控制耕地面积的缩减。未来漓江流域国土空间规划需综合统筹生态保护和耕地保护措施，提升区域碳汇能力，实现绿色可持续发展。
- 土地利用变化 /
- 碳储量 /
- PLUS模型 /
- InVEST模型 /
- 漓江流域
Abstract:
Evaluating ecosystem carbon storage is of great significance to regional ecological management. Using InVEST model and PLUS model, based on the interpreted land use data and future land use forecast data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 were studied, and the variation of carbon storage in different future scenarios was predicted. The results showed that land use change in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 was manifested in the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the increase in the area of water, construction land and unused land. Under the influence of land use change, the carbon storage in Lijiang River basin decreased by 0.945×10⁶ t from 2000 to 2020, among which the decrease was the largest from 2015 to 2020. The high carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the high altitude area of the northwest, southwest and east of the basin, while the low carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the central plain of the basin and obviously expanded from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon reserves of Lingui, Xing'an and Lingchuan counties in the basin decreased significantly. According to prediction, the carbon storage of Lijiang River basin would further decrease under the natural development scenario in 2030, the carbon storage under the cultivated land protection scenario would increase by 0.345 × 10⁶ t compared with the natural development scenario, and the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario would increase by 1.540 × 10⁶ and 1.195×10⁶ t compared with the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario, respectively. The cultivated land protection scenario could protect the amount of cultivated land, but the expansion of construction land was limited to a great extent; the ecological protection scenario could enhance carbon sequestration capacity, but could not effectively control the reduction of cultivated land area. In the future national land spatial planning of Lijiang River basin, ecological protection and cultivated land protection measures needed to be comprehensively coordinated to enhance the regional carbon sequestration capacity and achieve green and sustainable development.
- land use change /
- carbon storage /
- PLUS model /
- InVEST model /
- Lijiang River basin

HTML全文

图 1 漓江流域行政区划

Figure 1. Administrative divisions of Lijiang River basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2000—2020年漓江流域土地利用分布

Figure 2. Distribution of land use in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2000—2020年漓江流域碳储量变化

Figure 3. Changes in carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2000—2020年漓江流域碳储量空间分布及变化

Figure 4. Spatial distribution and changes of carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 不同情景下2030年漓江流域土地利用分布

Figure 5. Distribution of land use in Lijiang River basin in 2030 under different scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 不同情景下2020—2030年漓江流域碳储量空间变化

Figure 6. Spatial changes of carbon storage in Lijiang River Basin from 2020 to 2030 under different scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 漓江流域碳密度

Table 1. Carbon density in Lijiang River basin t/hm²　

土地利用类型	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{a}} $	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{b}} $	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{s}} $	$ {C}_{i} $
耕地^[18-21]	13.57	2.65	47.400	63.62
林地^[19-21]	58.30	14.58	96.00	168.88
草地^[21]	3.01	13.53	60.00	76.54
水域^[21]	2.80	2.40	0.00	5.20
建设用地^[19-21]	11.45	0.93	31.40	43.78
未利用地^[19-20]	3.40	0.00	31.40	34.80

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同时段各类土地利用类型面积变化

Table 2. Changes in the area of various types of land in different time periods km²　

年份区间	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2000—2005	−5.756	−2.727	−2.467	0.468	10.603	0.014
2005—2010	−9.789	12.534	−19.619	8.265	8.235	0.393
2010—2015	−17.059	−19.671	0.484	3.209	31.078	1.821
2015—2020	−60.469	−33.278	−14.940	14.272	95.676	−1.086
2000—2020	−93.074	−43.142	−36.542	26.213	145.592	1.141

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 2000—2020年漓江流域土地转移矩阵结果

Table 3. Results of land transfer matrix in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 km²　

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
耕地	3 421.710	80.006	18.209	18.105	101.625	0.161
林地	82.576	11 314.903	54.046	15.785	37.124	1.023
草地	19.608	58.763	1 646.417	5.242	28.085	0.016
水域	6.540	4.721	1.497	168.255	1.562	0.004
建设用地	16.300	3.645	1.460	1.402	340.531	0.005
未利用地	0.001	0.070	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.055

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量

Table 4. Carbon storage of different land use types in Lijiang River basin 10⁶ t　

年份	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2000	23.157	194.366	13.465	0.095	1.591	0.007
2020	22.565	193.637	13.185	0.109	2.228	0.011

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 2000—2020年漓江流域各土地利用类型转化下的碳储量变化

Table 5. Changes in carbon storage under the transformation of various land use types in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

土地利用类型转化	面积/km²	碳储量变化/万t
耕地－林地	80.006	84.214
耕地－草地	18.209	2.353
耕地－水域	18.105	−10.577
耕地－建设用地	101.625	−20.162
耕地－未利用地	0.161	−0.046
林地－耕地	82.576	−86.920
林地－草地	54.046	−49.906
林地－水域	15.785	−25.837
林地－建设用地	37.124	−46.442
林地－未利用地	1.023	−1.372
草地－耕地	19.608	−2.533
草地－林地	58.763	54.262
草地－水域	5.242	−3.740
草地－建设用地	28.085	−9.201
草地－未利用地	0.016	−0.006
水域－耕地	6.540	3.820
水域－林地	4.721	7.728
水域－草地	1.497	1.068
水域－建设用地	1.562	0.603
水域－未利用地	0.004	0.001
建设用地－耕地	16.300	3.234
建设用地－林地	3.645	4.559
建设用地－草地	1.460	0.478
建设用地－水域	1.402	−0.541
建设用地－未利用地	0.005	0.000
未利用地－耕地	0.001	0.000
未利用地－林地	0.070	0.094
未利用地－草地	0.000	0.000

下载: 导出CSV

表 6 不同情景下2030年漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量

Table 6. Carbon storage of different land use in Lijiang River basin under different scenarios in 2030 10⁶ t　

土地利用类型	不同情景下碳储量
土地利用类型	自然发展情景	耕地保护情景	生态保护情景
耕地	22.203	23.162	22.203
林地	192.806	192.684	194.683
草地	13.068	13.068	13.068
水域	0.116	0.098	0.096
建设用地	2.699	2.225	2.384
未利用地	0.011	0.011	0.009
合计	230.903	231.248	232.443

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(29)

[1]	杨元合, 石岳, 孙文娟, 等.中国及全球陆地生态系统碳源汇特征及其对碳中和的贡献[J]. 中国科学:生命科学,2022,52(4):534-574. YANG Y H, SHI Y, SUN W J, et al. Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality[J]. Scientia Sinica (Vitae),2022,52(4):534-574.
[2]	于贵瑞, 方华军, 伏玉玲, 等.区域尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程研究进展[J]. 生态学报,2011,31(19):5449-5459. YU G R, FANG H J, FU Y L, et al. Research on carbon budget and carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems in regional scale: a review[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(19):5449-5459.
[3]	方精云, 于贵瑞, 任小波, 等.中国陆地生态系统固碳效应: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题”之生态系统固碳任务群研究进展[J]. 中国科学院院刊,2015,30(6):848-857. FANG J Y, YU G R, REN X B, et al. Carbon sequestration in China's terrestrial ecosystems under climate change: progress on ecosystem carbon sequestration from the CAS strategic priority research program[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015,30(6):848-857.
[4]	陈耀亮, 罗格平, 叶辉, 等.1975—2005年中亚土地利用/覆被变化对森林生态系统碳储量的影响[J]. 自然资源学报,2015,30(3):397-408. CHEN Y L, LUO G P, YE H, et al. Sources and sinks of carbon caused by forest land use change from 1975 to 2005 in central Asia[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(3):397-408.
[5]	朱文博, 张静静, 崔耀平, 等.基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统碳储量评估: 以太行山淇河流域为例[J]. 地理学报,2019,74(3):446-459. ZHU W B, ZHANG J J, CUI Y P, et al. Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario: a case study in Qihe River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2019,74(3):446-459.
[6]	赫晓慧, 徐雅婷, 范学峰, 等.中原城市群区域碳储量的时空变化和预测研究[J]. 中国环境科学,2022,42(6):2965-2976. HE X H, XU Y T, FAN X F, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of regional carbon storage in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration[J]. China Environmental Science,2022,42(6):2965-2976.
[7]	杨小琬, 张丽君, 秦耀辰, 等.1995年以来黄河下游碳储量时空变化及驱动因素[J]. 河南大学学报(自然科学版),2022,52(1):20-33. doi: 10.15991/j.cnki.411100.2022.01.003 YANG X W, ZHANG L J, QIN Y C, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and driving factors of carbon storage in the lower Yellow River since 1995[J]. Journal of Henan University (Natural Science),2022,52(1):20-33. doi: 10.15991/j.cnki.411100.2022.01.003
[8]	吴佩君, 刘小平, 黎夏, 等.基于InVEST模型和元胞自动机的城市扩张对陆地生态系统碳储量影响评估: 以广东省为例[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(5):22-28. WU P J, LIU X P, LI X, et al. Impact of urban expansion on carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems based on InVEST model and CA: a case study of Guangdong Province, China[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science,2016,32(5):22-28.
[9]	罗楠, 滕耀宝, 胡金龙, 等.漓江流域土地利用变化及与旅游发展关系研究[J]. 西北林学院学报,2021,36(5):262-268. LUO N, TENG Y B, HU J L, et al. Changes of land use and its relationship with tourism development in Lijiang River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2021,36(5):262-268.
[10]	何毅, 唐湘玲.1998—2018年漓江流域土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响[J]. 湖北农业科学,2020,59(22):75-80. HE Y, TANG X L. Impact of land use change on ecosystem service value in Lijiang River Basin in 1998-2018[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2020,59(22):75-80.
[11]	左天惠, 陆飞扬, 黄妤.漓江流域土地利用时空变化动态监测与分析[J]. 南方国土资源,2021(12):22-26.
[12]	张钰莹, 孙美莹, 杨荣金, 等.西南地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响[J]. 环境工程技术学报,2022,12(1):207-214. ZHANG Y Y, SUN M Y, YANG R J, et al. Impact of land-use change on ecosystem service value in Southwest China[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2022,12(1):207-214.
[13]	马欢, 冯朝阳, 宋婷, 等.1990—2018年赤水河流域土地利用变化分析[J]. 环境工程技术学报,2021,11(3):428-436. MA H, FENG C Y, SONG T, et al. Study on the characteristics of land use change in Chishui River Basin from 1990 to 2018[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2021,11(3):428-436.
[14]	徐自为, 张智杰.基于土地利用变更调查的2010—2016年新疆尉犁县生态系统碳储量时空变化[J]. 环境科学研究,2018,31(11):1909-1917. XU Z W, ZHANG Z J. Spatiotemporal variation of carbon storage in Yuli County during 2010-2016[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences,2018,31(11):1909-1917.
[15]	吴瑞, 刘桂环, 文一惠.基于InVEST模型的官厅水库流域产水和水质净化服务时空变化[J]. 环境科学研究,2017,30(3):406-414. WU R, LIU G H, WEN Y H. Spatiotemporal variations of water yield and water quality purification service functions in Guanting Reservoir Basin based on InVEST model[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences,2017,30(3):406-414.
[16]	揣小伟, 黄贤金, 郑泽庆, 等.江苏省土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响[J]. 资源科学,2011,33(10):1932-1939. CHUAI X W, HUANG X J, ZHENG Z Q, et al. Land use change and its influence on carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangsu Province[J]. Resources Science,2011,33(10):1932-1939.
[17]	方精云, 黄耀, 朱江玲, 等.森林生态系统碳收支及其影响机制[J]. 中国基础科学,2015,17(3):20-25. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2412.2015.03.004 FANG J Y, HUANG Y, ZHU J L, et al. Carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its driving forces[J]. China Basic Science,2015,17(3):20-25. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2412.2015.03.004
[18]	荣检. 基于InVEST模型的广西西江流域生态系统产水与固碳服务功能研究[D]. 南宁: 广西师范学院, 2017.
[19]	朱鹏飞. 基于InVEST模型的广西沿海地区土地利用/覆被变化的生态效应研究[D]. 南宁: 广西师范学院, 2018.
[20]	黄秀雨. 桂西南喀斯特-海岸带土地利用变化及其生态系统服务权衡研究[D]. 南宁: 南宁师范大学, 2021.
[21]	张凯琪, 陈建军, 侯建坤, 等.耦合InVEST与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的桂林市碳储量可持续发展研究[J]. 中国环境科学,2022,42(6):2799-2809. ZHANG K Q, CHEN J J, HOU J K, et al. Study on sustainable development of carbon storage in Guilin coupled with InVEST and GeoSOS-FLUS model[J]. China Environmental Science,2022,42(6):2799-2809.
[22]	LIANG X, GUAN Q F, CLARKE K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: a case study in Wuhan, China[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,2021,85:101569. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569
[23]	胡丰, 张艳, 郭宇, 等.基于PLUS和InVEST模型的渭河流域土地利用与生境质量时空变化及预测[J]. 干旱区地理,2022,45(4):1125-1136. HU F, ZHANG Y, GUO Y, et al. Spatial and temporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin based on the PLUS and InVEST models and predictions[J]. Arid Land Geography,2022,45(4):1125-1136.
[24]	李琛, 高彬嫔, 吴映梅, 等.基于PLUS模型的山区城镇景观生态风险动态模拟[J]. 浙江农林大学学报,2022,39(1):84-94. LI C, GAO B P, WU Y M, et al. Dynamic simulation of landscape ecological risk in mountain towns based on PLUS model[J]. Journal of Zhejiang A & F University,2022,39(1):84-94.
[25]	WU C Y, CHEN B W, HUANG X J, et al. Effect of land-use change and optimization on the ecosystem service values of Jiangsu Province, China[J]. Ecological Indicators,2020,117:106507. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106507
[26]	李妙宇, 上官周平, 邓蕾.黄土高原地区生态系统碳储量空间分布及其影响因素[J]. 生态学报,2021,41(17):6786-6799. LI M Y, SHANGGUAN Z P, DENG L. Spatial distribution of carbon storages in the terrestrial ecosystems and its influencing factors on the Loess Plateau[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2021,41(17):6786-6799.
[27]	张颖, 李晓格, 温亚利.碳达峰碳中和背景下中国森林碳汇潜力分析研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报,2022,44(1):38-47. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20210143 ZHANG Y, LI X G, WEN Y L. Forest carbon sequestration potential in China under the background of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2022,44(1):38-47. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20210143
[28]	任玺锦, 裴婷婷, 陈英, 等.基于碳密度修正的甘肃省土地利用变化对碳储量的影响[J]. 生态科学,2021,40(4):66-74. doi: 10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2021.04.008 REN X J, PEI T T, CHEN Y, et al. Impact of land use change on carbon storage in Gansu Province based on carbon density correction[J]. Ecological Science,2021,40(4):66-74. doi: 10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2021.04.008
[29]	张志国, 班高晗.土地利用变化驱动下洛阳市生态系统碳储量时空变异[J]. 江苏农业科学,2021,49(14):226-230. ZHANG Z G, BAN G H. Temporal and spatial variation of ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change in Luoyang City[J]. Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2021,49(14):226-230. ◇