Characteristics of water quality change during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and trend prediction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in three major basins of Hainan Island
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摘要:
为服务海南自由贸易港水生态环境保护，基于海南省地表水环境质量监测网监测数据，对海南岛南渡江、昌化江、万泉河三大流域“十三五”期间水质状况、主要污染物浓度、综合污染指数变化进行了分析，采用Spearman秩相关系数研判其污染变化特征，并采用均值GM(1,1)模型（EGM）预测“十四五”期间水质变化趋势。结果表明：“十三五”期间，海南岛三大流域水质状况总体呈稳中向好趋势，南渡江、万泉河流域水质优良比例分别上升至96.3%、100%，昌化江流域水质优良比例保持在100%；三大流域CODMn、CODCr、氨氮、总磷浓度年均值均处于较低水平，低于GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅱ类标准限值，其中CODCr年均值均低于Ⅰ类标准限值，“十三五”期间除氨氮浓度下降外，其他指标均有不同程度的上升或波动，上升幅度为6.7%~23.8%；干流综合污染指数均小幅下降，下降幅度为0.03~0.04，主要支流综合污染指数自上游到下游呈波动上升的空间变化特征。EGM预测结果表明，“十四五”期间海南岛三大流域干流和绝大部分支流水质综合污染指数呈上升趋势，最大上升幅度达108.3%，三大流域水环境仍面临较大的压力，尤其是支流汇入带来的污染负荷不容忽视。“十四五”期间，应以系统保护思路，落实“六水共治”“一河一策”等措施，进一步改善三大流域水质。
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关键词:
- 海南岛 /
- 三大流域 /
- 水质变化 /
- 综合污染指数 /
- 均值GM(1,1)模型
Abstract:Based on the monitoring data of Hainan Province surface water environment quality network, the water quality, concentration of major pollutants, variation of composite pollution index in three major basins of Nandu River, Changhua River, Wanquan River in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan period were analyzed, and Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to research and judge the pollution changecharacteristic, and the mean GM(1,1) model (EGM) was used to predict the trend of water quality change during the 14th Five-Year Plan period for servicing the water ecological environment protection of Hainan Free Trade Port. The results showed that the water quality of three major basins in Hainan Island was getting better steadily during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The proportion of Grade Ⅰ-Ⅲ water quality of Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB 3838-2002) in Nandu River basin and Wanquan River basin increased to 96.3% and 100%, respectively. The proportion of Grade Ⅰ-Ⅲ water quality in Changhua River basin remained at 100%. The average annual concentrations of permanganate index, chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus were all at a low level, which were lower than the standard limits of Grade Ⅱ, and the average annual concentration of chemical oxygen demand was lower than the standard limits of Grade Ⅰ. The average annual concentration of ammonia nitrogen was decreased during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The average annual concentrations of permanganate index, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus were increased or fluctuated during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with an increase range of 6.7% to 23.8%. The composite pollution index of the mainstream declined with a range of 0.03 to 0.04. The composite pollution index of the main tributaries increased with fluctuations from upstream to downstream. EGM predicted that during 14th Five-year Plan period, the comprehensive pollution index of the mainstreams of three major basins and most of the tributaries showed an upward trend, with a maximum increase of 108.3%. The water environment of three major basins in Hainan Island would face high pressure, and especially the pollution load from the tributaries should not be neglected. According to the prediction results, in order to improve the water quality of the three major basins, it was necessary to implement measures such as “Governance of Six Waters” and “One River One Policy” in a systematic protection approach during the 14th Five-Year Plan.
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图 1 “十三五”期间海南岛三大流域监测断面分布示意
Figure 1. Distribution of monitoring points in three major basins in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan period
图 2 “十三五”期间海南岛三大流域不同水质类别断面比例变化
Figure 2. Proportion of Grade Ⅰ-Ⅳ water quality sections in three major basins in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan period
图 3 “十三五”期间海南岛三大流域主要污染物浓度变化及“十四五”期间预测结果
Figure 3. Variation of major pollutant concentrations of three major basins in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and predicted results during the 14th Five-Year Plan period
表 1 河流/流域断面水质评价
Table 1. Water quality assessment of sections of river/basin
河流/流域的断面水质类别比例 河流/流域
水质评价Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质比例≥90% 优 75%≤Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质比例<90% 良好 Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质比例<75%，且劣Ⅴ类比例<20% 轻度污染 Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质比例<75%，且20%≤劣Ⅴ类比例<40% 中度污染 Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质比例<60%，且劣Ⅴ类比例≥40% 重度污染 
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表 2 “十三五”期间海南岛三大流域总体水质、干流水质和支流水质
Table 2. Overall, main stream, tributary water quality of three major basins in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan
流域 年份 总体水质 干流水质 支流水质 南渡江流域 2016 优 优 南淀河水质为轻度污染，南溪河、南叉河、南春河、腰子河、南坤河、绿现水、大塘河、海仔河、龙州河、巡崖河水质为优 2017 优 优 巡崖河水质良好，南溪河、南叉河、南春河、腰子河、南坤河、绿现水、大塘河、海仔河、龙州河、南淀河水质为优 2018 优 优 绿现水、龙州河、巡崖河水质良好，南溪河、南叉河、南春河、腰子河、南坤河、大塘河、海仔河、南淀河水质为优 2019 优 优 南坤河、绿现水、龙州河、巡崖河水质良好，南溪河、南叉河、南春河、腰子河、大塘河、海仔河、南淀河水质为优 2020 优 优 大塘河、绿现水、龙州河、巡崖河水质良好，南溪河、南叉河、南春河、腰子河、南坤河、海仔河、南淀河水质为优 昌化江流域 2016 优 优 优 2017 优 优 优 2018 优 优 优 2019 优 优 乐中水、石碌河水质良好，水满河、南圣河、南巴水水质为优 2020 优 优 乐中水水质良好，石碌河、水满河、南圣河、南巴水水质为优 万泉河流域 2016 优 优 塔洋河水质为轻度污染，中平溪、三更罗溪、大边河、营盘溪、青梯溪、加浪河水质为优 2017 优 优 塔洋河水质良好，中平溪、三更罗溪、大边河、营盘溪、青梯溪、加浪河水质为优 2018 优 优 营盘溪水质良好，中平溪、三更罗溪、大边河、青梯溪、加浪河、塔洋河水质为优 2019 优 优 营盘溪、塔洋河水质良好，中平溪、三更罗溪、大边河、青梯溪、加浪河水质为优 2020 优 优 塔洋河水质良好，中平溪、三更罗溪、大边河、营盘溪、青梯溪、加浪河水质为优
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表 3 “十三五”期间海南岛三大流域干流及支流综合污染指数及变化趋势
Table 3. Main stream, tributary composite pollution index and variation trend of three major basins in Hainan Island during the 13th Five-Year Plan period
流域 干流/支流 河流名称 综合污染指数 rs 变化趋势 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 南渡江流域 干流 南渡江干流 0.40 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.36 −0.316 无显著变化 上流支流 南溪河 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.600 无显著变化 南叉河 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.23 −0.205 无显著变化 南春河 0.21 0.26 0.21 0.19 0.26 0.053 无显著变化 中游支流 腰子河 0.34 0.32 0.28 0.27 0.24 −1.000 显著下降 南坤河 0.43 0.36 0.41 0.46 0.41 0.103 无显著变化 绿现水 0.41 0.35 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.900 无显著变化 下游支流 大塘河 0.41 0.42 0.36 0.34 0.39 −0.600 无显著变化 海仔河 0.43 0.36 0.41 0.41 0.50 0.359 无显著变化 龙州河 0.51 0.49 0.50 0.48 0.50 −0.410 无显著变化 南淀河 0.42 0.34 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.821 无显著变化 巡崖河 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.55 0.72 0.400 无显著变化 昌化江流域 干流 昌化江干流 0.32 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.28 −0.205 无显著变化 上游支流 水满河 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.671 无显著变化 南圣河 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.29 0.369 无显著变化 下游支流 乐中水 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.44 0.41 0.564 无显著变化 南巴水 0.26 0.30 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.462 无显著变化 石碌河 0.41 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.40 −0.100 无显著变化 万泉河流域 干流 万泉河干流 0.32 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.29 −0.200 无显著变化 上游支流 中平溪 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 −0.791 无显著变化 三更罗溪 0.32 0.37 0.31 0.34 0.28 −0.500 无显著变化 大边河 0.32 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 −0.051 无显著变化 营盘溪 0.52 0.34 0.40 0.38 0.35 −0.400 无显著变化 青梯溪 0.33 0.31 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.600 无显著变化 下游支流 加浪河 0.50 0.41 0.39 0.44 0.43 −0.200 无显著变化 塔洋河 0.64 0.52 0.46 0.48 0.60 −0.300 无显著变化
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表 4 “十四五”期间海南岛三大流域干流及支流综合污染指数预测结果
Table 4. Predicted results of main stream and tributary composite pollution index of three major basins in Hainan Island during the 14th Five-Year Plan period
流域 干流/支流 河流名称 综合污染指数 平均模拟相对误差/% 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 南渡江流域 干流 南渡江干流 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 3.98 上游支流 南溪河 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.25 4.87 南叉河 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 8.72 南春河 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 13.39 中游支流 腰子河 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.15 1.75 南坤河 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.53 0.55 6.12 绿现水 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.84 0.93 6.95 下游支流 大塘河 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 7.31 海仔河 0.54 0.60 0.66 0.73 0.81 3.47 龙州河 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.43 南淀河 0.52 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.74 4.18 巡崖河 0.81 0.95 1.10 1.29 1.50 4.26 昌化江流域 干流 昌化江干流 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 1.78 上游支流 水满河 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.38 0.41 2.33 南圣河 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 1.72 下游支流 乐中水 0.48 0.54 0.61 0.68 0.77 7.46 南巴水 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 10.21 石碌河 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 1.56 万泉河流域 干流 万泉河干流 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 3.97 上游支流 中平溪 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.98 三更罗溪 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.20 5.59 大边河 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.88 营盘溪 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 6.12 青梯溪 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.56 0.60 6.96 下游支流 加浪河 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.50 3.16 塔洋河 0.59 0.62 0.66 0.69 0.73 8.68
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