Analysis of cost and potential of energy-conservation technologies in iron and steel industry: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region
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摘要:
钢铁行业是能源消耗和碳排放的重点行业，节能减排是钢铁行业绿色低碳转型发展的有效途径，节能技术是钢铁行业提高能源效率、降低碳排放和减少空气污染的关键。运用节能供给曲线方法对长三角地区钢铁行业技术节能成本进行评价，并对2030年长三角地区钢铁行业技术节能潜力进行评估。结果表明：钢铁行业28项技术在2030年预计为长三角地区累计节能875.74 PJ，约为2020年长三角地区钢铁行业总能耗的34%；考虑不同收益项时的技术节能成本存在差异，当不考虑任何收益时技术的节能成本最高，当将协同效益纳入考虑后，技术的节能成本降到较低水平；贴现率、温室气体或污染物交易价格等因素会对技术的节能成本产生影响，贴现率越高意味着资金成本越高，技术的节能成本也相应越高；温室气体或污染物价格上升会增加技术节能的收益，从而降低技术的节能成本。
Abstract:As a typical resource and energy intensive industry, energy saving and emission reduction is the effective green and low-carbon transformation and development path of the iron and steel industry. Energy-conservation technologies are vital to improve energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions and decrease air pollution in the iron and steel industry. The Conservation Supply Curve method was used to evaluate the techonolies’ energy-conservation cost of the iron and steel industry in the Yangtze River Delta region. And the energy conservation potential realized by the technologies in the region in 2030 was evaluated. The results showed that 28 energy-conservation technologies in the iron and steel industry were expected to save 875.74 PJ of energy in 2030, which was about 34% of the total energy consumption of the iron and steel industry in the Yangtze River Delta in 2020. When different income items were considered, the energy-conservation cost of technologies was different; when no income was considered, the energy-conservation cost of technologies was the highest; when the co-benefit was taken into account, the energy-conservation cost was reduced to a lower level. The discount rate, the trading price of greenhouse gases or pollutants and other factors would have an impact on the energy-conservation cost of the technologies. The higher the discount rate, the higher the capital cost, and the higher the energy-conservation cost of the technologies. A rise in the price of greenhouse gases or pollutants would increase the benefit of energy conservation and thus reduce the cost of energy conservation of the technologies.
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Key words:
- iron and steel industry /
- energy conservation cost /
- emissions reduction /
- co-benefit
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图 1 考虑不同收益项的节能成本变化
Figure 1. Change of energy-conservation cost considering different benefit items
图 2 各项技术的节能收益与协同效益
Figure 2. Energy-conservation income and co-benefits of technologies
图 3 长三角地区钢铁行业总能耗
Figure 3. Total energy consumption of the iron and steel industry in the Yangtze River Delta region
图 4 贴现率对技术节能成本的影响
Figure 4. Influence of discount rate on the energy-conservation cost of the technologies
图 5 碳价格对技术节能成本的影响
Figure 5. Influence of carbon price on the energy-conservation cost of the technologies
表 1 情景设置
Table 1. Different scenarios settings
情景 电炉钢比/% 技术普及 粗钢产量 BAU 10 保持2020年水平 2020年产量 PAS 30 保持2020年水平 2030年预测产量 TPS 10 考虑技术普及 2030年预测产量 CSS 30 考虑技术普及 2030年预测产量 
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表 2 中国钢铁行业中间产品量及原料对应单位粗钢产品折算系数
Table 2. Conversion coefficients of the intermediate products and raw materials corresponding to crude steel in China's iron and steel industry
单位产品 折算系数 焦炭 0.33 烧结矿 1.35 生铁 0.92 粗钢 1 钢材 1.32
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表 3 节能技术基本信息数据来源
Table 3. Sources of energy-conservation technologies basic information
工序 序号 技术名称 数据来源 烧结 t11 转臂式液密封环冷机 文献[30] t12 厚料层烧结技术 文献[10，32] t13 烧结余热发电 文献[26] t14 烧结烟气内循环技术 文献[27，29] t15 减污折叠滤筒节能技术 文献[31] 焦化 t21 煤调湿技术（CMC） 文献[33] t22 干熄焦技术（CDQ） 文献[33] t23 焦炉上升管余热回收技术 文献[27-29] 高炉炼铁 t31 高炉煤气干式余压发电技术（TRT） 文献[33] t32 高炉煤粉喷吹技术 文献[33] t33 热风炉烟气余热回热器 文献[2，11] t34 高炉自动化控制技术 文献[2，11] t35 燃气蒸汽联合循环发电技术（CCPP） 文献[26] t36 旋切式高风温顶燃热风技术 文献[26] t37 高炉喷吹废塑料技术 文献[2，11] t38 高炉鼓风除湿节能技术 文献[26] 转炉炼钢 t41 转炉烟气余热回收技术 文献[10-11] t42 钢水真空循环脱气工艺干式（机械）
真空系统应用技术文献[26] t43 转炉烟气干法除尘技术 文献[2，11] 电炉炼钢 t51 废钢预热连续加料技术 文献[30] t52 电炉烟气余热回收技术 文献[33] 轧钢 t61 热装热送技术 文献[2，11] t62 热轧过程控制模型关键技术 文献[11，32] t63 加热炉黑体强化辐射节能技术 文献[26] t64 加热炉蓄热式燃烧技术 文献[2] t65 连续退火技术 文献[10，32] 综合性技术 t71 预防性维护技术 文献[10-11] t72 能源监测与管理系统 文献[33]
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表 4 节能技术扩散渗透参数与预计普及率
Table 4. Penetration parameters and estimated popularity rates of the energy-conservation technologies
技术序号 渗透参数（S） 2022年普及率/% 2030年普及率/% t11 1.70 20 100 t12 5.59 90 100 t13 5.16 50 97 t14 6.84 2 66 t15 2.65 5 70 t21 8.29 45 90 t22 3.09 95 100 t23 7.05 10 85 t31 7.45 55 95 t32 3.55 90 100 t33 5.79 75 100 t34 4.56 85 100 t35 5.22 40 65 t36 3.69 80 100 t37 7.51 45 75 t38 5.22 40 96 t41 5.40 70 99 t42 11.45 10 48 t43 5.71 70 90 t51 17.96 20 55 t52 3.99 85 100 t61 9.47 65 88 t62 5.59 90 100 t63 8.02 30 77 t64 3.70 85 100 t65 4.20 80 100 t71 1.58 99 100 t72 3.70 90 100
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表 5 二氧化碳及主要大气污染物排放因子
Table 5. Emission factors of carbon dioxide and several main air pollutants
kg/GJ 排放物 燃料燃烧排放因子 电力使用排放因子 CO2 104.40 158.42 SO2 0.655 80 0.7339 NOx 0.25 0.346 6 PM10 1.549 3 1.941 3
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表 6 二氧化碳及主要大气污染物价格/货币化价值
Table 6. Prices or monetized value of carbon dioxide and several main air pollutants
元/t 排放物 价格/货币化价值 CO2 42.85 SO2 5 505 NOx 6 137 PM10 47 098
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表 7 2030年28项节能技术的节能潜力与减排效果
Table 7. Energy conservation potential and emission reduction effect of 28 technologies in 2030
技术序号 总节能量/PJ 减排量/万t CO2 SO2 NOx PM10 t11 4.76 75.35 0.35 0.16 0.92 t12 15.34 160.18 1.01 0.38 2.38 t13 10.72 169.76 0.79 0.37 2.08 t14 7.86 84.57 0.52 0.20 1.24 t15 0.24 3.81 0.02 0.01 0.05 t21 7.09 74.00 0.46 0.18 1.10 t22 56.26 587.33 3.69 1.41 8.72 t23 11.43 119.92 0.75 0.29 1.78 t31 10.73 169.95 0.79 0.37 2.08 t32 64.83 676.79 4.25 1.62 10.04 t33 31.37 327.48 2.06 0.78 4.86 t34 33.46 349.31 2.19 0.84 5.18 t35 15.63 163.19 1.03 0.39 2.42 t36 24.05 251.07 1.58 0.60 3.73 t37 12.55 198.77 0.92 0.43 2.44 t38 23.09 241.03 1.51 0.58 3.58 t41 15.75 164.45 1.03 0.39 2.44 t42 14.73 153.77 0.97 0.37 2.28 t43 38.87 405.79 2.55 0.97 6.02 t51 9.64 152.78 0.71 0.33 1.87 t52 35.07 366.13 2.30 0.88 5.43 t61 90.53 945.10 5.94 2.26 14.03 t62 64.29 671.24 4.22 1.61 9.96 t63 23.10 241.20 1.52 0.58 3.58 t64 62.15 648.86 4.08 1.55 9.63 t65 81.44 850.23 5.34 2.04 12.62 t71 63.90 682.48 4.21 1.62 10.01 t72 46.86 496.91 3.08 1.19 7.32 总计 875.74 9431.47 57.85 22.41 137.77
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表 8 各项技术的单位节能成本
Table 8. Unit energy-conservation costs of technologies
元/GJ 技术序号 普通成本 考虑
节能收益考虑碳减排的
协同效益考虑大气污染物
减排的协同效益技术序号 普通成本 考虑
节能收益考虑碳减排的
协同效益考虑大气污染物
减排的协同效益t11 17.98 −154.80 −161.58 −259.18 t37 30.45 −142.33 −149.12 −246.72 t12 3.92 −66.65 −71.12 −149.24 t38 8.20 −62.37 −66.85 −144.96 t13 82.20 −90.58 −97.37 −194.97 t41 579.43 508.86 504.38 426.27 t14 26.84 −49.80 −54.51 −133.68 t42 1.39 −69.18 −73.65 −151.77 t15 48.68 −124.10 −130.89 −228.49 t43 34.13 −36.44 −40.91 −119.02 t21 324.47 253.90 249.43 171.32 t51 271.08 98.30 91.51 −6.08 t22 58.41 −12.16 −16.64 −94.75 t52 25.35 −45.22 −49.69 −127.81 t23 13.61 −57.86 −62.36 −140.64 t61 101.40 30.83 26.35 −51.76 t31 270.39 97.61 90.83 −6.77 t62 33.06 −37.51 −41.98 −120.09 t32 121.72 51.25 46.68 −31.43 t63 57.92 −12.65 −17.12 −95.23 t33 25.28 −45.29 −49.77 −127.88 t64 9.30 −61.27 −65.75 −143.86 t34 16.26 −54.31 −58.78 −136.90 t65 142.30 71.73 67.25 −10.86 t35 203.15 132.58 128.10 49.99 t71 4.42 −70.69 −75.27 −154.24 t36 23.14 −47.43 −51.91 −130.02 t72 7.32 −66.35 −70.90 −149.60
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