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典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估

周礼洋

周礼洋.典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估[J].环境工程技术学报,2024,14(1):98-111 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197
引用本文: 周礼洋.典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估[J].环境工程技术学报,2024,14(1):98-111 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197
ZHOU L Y.Distribution characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons in contaminated plots of typical organic chemical plants and risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2024,14(1):98-111 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197
Citation: ZHOU L Y.Distribution characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons in contaminated plots of typical organic chemical plants and risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2024,14(1):98-111 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197

典型有机化工厂污染地块氯代烃分布特征及基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230197
基金项目: 上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目(21YF1432500)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    周礼洋(1991—),男,工程师,主要从事土壤和地下水修复研究,528983826@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: X53

Distribution characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons in contaminated plots of typical organic chemical plants and risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation

Funds: SHI J X,ZHENG J,YANG Y,et al.Optimization of SVE remediation project based on soil layer risk assessment with HERA model[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2019,13(12): 2954-2962.
  • 摘要:

    以长三角某典型有机化工地块为研究对象,采集651个土壤样品和30个地下水样品,研究氯代烃(CAHs)在环境中的污染程度及其空间分布特征,结合蒙特卡洛模拟方法分析土壤和地下水中CAHs的健康风险概率。结果表明:大部分CAHs浓度呈偏正态分布,浓度随着深度增加整体逐渐降低,土壤和地下水中三氯乙烯的污染程度最严重,污染羽主要集中在地块西南部和西北部。三氯乙烯和氯仿是造成健康风险的主要污染物,土壤中三氯乙烯致癌风险大于10−6 的概率为87.2%,危害商大于1的概率为71.76%,氯仿危害商大于1的概率为81.28%。每日土壤摄入量对土壤致癌风险的敏感性最大(31.9%),皮肤表面黏性系数对地下水致癌风险和危害商的敏感度最大,分别为16.9和23%。吸入室内空气中来自下层土壤的气态污染物是造成土壤致癌和非致癌风险的主要暴露途径,吸入室内来自地下的气态污染物途径是造成地下水致癌和非致癌风险的主要暴露途径。

     

  • 图  1  土壤和地下水采样点位分布

    Figure  1.  Distribution of soil and groundwater sampling points in the researched site

    图  2  地块暴露途径模型

    Figure  2.  Exposure pathway model in the researched site

    图  3  土壤和地下水中CAHs类污染物浓度箱线图

    Figure  3.  Concentration box diagram of chlorinated hydrocarbon pollutants in soil and groundwater

    图  4  CAHs污染物超标浓度的垂向分布

    Figure  4.  Vertical distribution of excessive concentrations of CAHs pollutants

    图  5  地块CAHs污染范围三维模型

    Figure  5.  Three-dimensional spatial concentration interpolation distribution of chlorinated hydrocarbon pollution

    图  6  基于 Monte Carlo 模拟的健康风险指数分布

    Figure  6.  Distribution of health risk index based on Monte Carlo simulation

    图  7  致癌风险和非致癌危害商的敏感性分析

    Figure  7.  Sensitivity analysis of carcinogenic risk and hazard quotient

    表  1  地块各土层特征参数

    Table  1.   Characteristic parameters of each soil layer in the researched site

    分层土层类型含水率/
    %
    比重/(kg/m3)容重/
    (g/cm3
    孔隙比渗透系数/(cm/s)有机质含量/
    (g/kg)
    第①层杂填土38.12.701.41.234.77×10−511.1
    第②层淤泥质粉质黏土夹砂37.72.721.91.068.25×10−611.4
    第③层粉质黏土28.72.731.10.814.84×10−712.3
    第④层黏质粉土28.62.711.90.814.39×10−612.7
    第⑤层淤泥质粉质黏土33.82.721.81.087.74×10−611.8
    第⑥层粉质黏土27.42.721.20.774.81×10−811.1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  蒙特卡洛人体健康概率风险评估输入参数

    Table  2.   Input parameters of Monte Carlo human health probability risk assessment

    参数类型参数名称参数含义及单位概率分布类型概率模拟参数取值数据来源


    人群暴露参数
    EDa成人暴露周期/a三角分布min=7,max=64,μ=24文献[18,27]
    EFa成人暴露频率/(d/a)三角分布min=180,max=365,μ=345文献[28]
    OSIRa成人每日摄入土壤量/(mg/d)三角分布min=20,max=1000,μ=100文献[24]
    DAIRa成人每日空气呼吸量/(m3/d)三角分布min=6.24,max=114,μ=16.3文献[24]
    BWa成人体重/kg正态分布μ=59.78,σ=1.07文献[29]
    SAEa成人暴露皮肤表面积/cm2正态分布μ=18182,σ=1.1文献[30]
    SSARa成人皮肤表面土壤黏附系数/(mg/cm2正态分布μ=0.49,σ=0.54文献[31]
    FEIa成人的室内暴露频率/(d/a)三角分布min=104,max=347.7,μ=187.5文献[32]
    EFOa成人的室外暴露频率/(d/a)三角分布min=36.5,max=213,μ=62.5文献[32]
    客观环境因素参数ATnc非致癌效应平均时间/d常数9125文献[14]
    ATca致癌效应平均时间/d均匀分布min=25404,max=27156文献[27,32]
    ABSo经口摄入吸收效率因子常数1文献[24]
    Ev每日皮肤接触事件频率常数1文献[24]
    PIAF吸入土壤颗粒物在体内滞留比例常数0.75文献[24]
    fspo室外空气中来自土壤颗粒物所占比例常数0.5文献[24]
    fspi室内空气中来自土壤颗粒物所占比例常数0.8文献[24]
    SAF暴露于土壤的参考剂量分配系数常数0.2文献[24]
    PM10空气中可吸入悬浮颗粒物含量/(mg/m3)常数0.119文献[14]
    地块特征参数d表层污染土壤层厚度/cm常数430实测值
    Ls下层污染土壤层埋深/cm常数430实测值
    dsub下层污染土壤层厚度/cm常数2070实测值
    hv非饱和土层厚度/cm常数190实测值
    fom有机质含量/(g/kg)常数13.8实测值
    ρb土壤容重/(g/cm3常数1.42实测值
    Pws含水率/%常数23实测值
    Lgw地下水埋深/cm常数196实测值
      注:max代表最大值;min代表最小值;μ代表平均值;σ代表标准偏差。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  土壤和地下水中CAHs检测结果

    Table  3.   Statistics of chlorinated hydrocarbon detection results in soil and groundwater

    介质CAHs种类筛选值1)超标率/%最大值1)最小值1)平均值1)标准
    偏差1)
    变异系数/%峰度偏度
    土壤三氯乙烯2.8017.6382400.003.071114.987699.146.91109.8110.38
    1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷6.802.23495.007.64118.23154.081.300.791.40
    顺-1,2-二氯乙烯596.000.531950.00663.001151.33569.400.491.801.61
    氯乙烯0.430.91238.001.3866.9379.441.194.552.06
    四氯乙烯53.002.34600.0061.8195.03156.610.802.121.72
    反-1,2-二氯乙烯54.000.51268.0071.4139.8790.680.652.601.72
    氯仿0.901.5265.001.0316.4923.591.431.121.65
    1,1,2-三氯乙烷2.801.82118.004.4723.1030.241.318.892.85
    1,1-二氯乙烷9.001.82186.0010.849.7551.111.033.441.95
    三氯乙烯0.2156.67456.000.2174.93118.781.595.482.27
    1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷0.3516.673.720.571.691.240.731.220.92
    顺-1,2-二氯乙烯0.0656.6763.700.167.5315.352.0410.953.20
    氯乙烯0.0943.3311.300.122.243.271.463.271.85
    地下水四氯乙烯0.3030.0018.300.796.425.930.921.321.04
    反-1,2-二氯乙烯0.0630.0031.000.155.909.351.586.492.48
    氯仿0.3023.3328.300.578.089.191.142.971.77
      1)在土壤介质中,单位为 mg/kg;在地下水介质中,单位为 mg/L。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-03-14
  • 录用日期:  2023-07-11
  • 修回日期:  2023-04-23
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-12-01

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