2014—2020年全国沿海溢油风险情势变化

张利国; 程金香; 韩兆兴; 郑超蕙; 徐洪磊; 李悦

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230496

2014—2020年全国沿海溢油风险情势变化

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20230496

张利国^1,,
程金香^1, ,,
韩兆兴^{1, 2},
郑超蕙¹,
徐洪磊¹,
李悦¹

1.
交通运输部规划研究院
2.
清华大学

基金项目: 交通运输战略规划政策项目（062217-019）

详细信息

作者简介:
张利国(1988—)，男，博士，主要从事溢油风险防控研究，zhanglg@tpri.org.cn

通讯作者:
程金香(1978—)，女，正高级工程师，主要从事溢油风险防控研究，chengjx@tpri.org.cn

中图分类号: X820.4
计量
- 文章访问数: 334
- HTML全文浏览量: 83
- PDF下载量: 75
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-07-06
- 录用日期: 2023-11-30
- 修回日期: 2023-11-30

Changes of the coastal oil spill risk regime in China from 2014 to 2020

1.
Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport
2.
Tsinghua University

摘要

摘要:
为研究大规模海上油品运输溢油风险的时空分布特征，采用地理空间分析、大数据分析、数理统计等方法，建立海上溢油风险空间分析模型，应用全国沿海船舶AIS数据、溢油历史事故、生态环境敏感目标等数据分析2014—2020年溢油风险情势的变化情况。结果表明：与2014年相比，2020年溢油事故风险指数均值、最大值分别增加27.8%和26.8%，溢油事故风险指数变化为−0.46~0.40，其中风险增加的海域主要分布在南北大通道、成山头、长江口、台湾海峡、珠江口海域，减少区域主要分布在近岸海域。全国沿海溢油事故高风险集中区主要分布在渤海—北黄海、长江口、台湾海峡、珠江口等海域；相较于2014年，2020年高风险集中区内有局部调整变化，但是高风险集中区的分布格局未发生变化。研究成果可为溢油风险管控和应急装备配备提供支撑。
- 全国沿海 /
- 溢油风险 /
- 空间分析 /
- 风险指数 /
- 情势变化
Abstract:
In order to study the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of oil spill risk of large-scale oil transportation in marine, the spatial analysis model of marine oil spill risk was established by applying the methods of geospatial analysis, big data analysis and mathematical statistics. The changes of oil spill risk regime from 2014 to 2020 were analyzed based on the national coastal ship AIS data, historical oil spill accident data, and ecological environment sensitive area data. The results showed that compared with 2014, the average value and the maximum value of oil spill accident risk index in 2020 increased by about 27.8% and 26.8%, respectively. The change of oil spill accident risk index was about -0.46-0.40. The oil spill accident risk increasing areas were mainly in the north-south channel, Chengshantou, the mouth of the Yangtze River, Taiwan Strait, and the Pearl River estuary sea area. The oil spill accident risk decreasing areas were mainly distributed in the near-shore sea area. The high-risk concentration areas of coastal oil spill accident risk were mainly located in the Bohai Sea - North Yellow Sea, the mouth of the Yangtze River, Taiwan Strait and the Pearl River estuary sea area. There were localized adjustments within the high-risk concentration areas in 2020 compared with 2014, but the distribution pattern of high-risk concentration areas remained unchanged. The research results could provide support for risk control and emergency equipment.
- coastal area in China /
- oil spill risk /
- spatial analysis /
- risk index /
- regime changes

HTML全文

图 1 海上溢油风险分析模型技术路线

Figure 1. Technical route of marine oil spill risk analysis model

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图 2 生态环境敏感指数

注：地图底图为GS（2023）2763号。全文同。

Figure 2. Sensitivity index of sensitive area

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图 3 2020年污染风险指数及等级区划

Figure 3. Oil spill pollution risk index and grade zoning in 2020

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图 4 2014年溢油事故风险情况

Figure 4. Oil spill accident risk in 2014

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图 5 2020年溢油事故风险情况

Figure 5. Oil spill accident risk in 2020

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图 6 2014年和2020年溢油事故风险指数变化

Figure 6. Changes of oil spill accident risk of 2014 and 2020

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图 7 2014年和2020年高风险集中区变化

Figure 7. Changes of high-risk concentration area of 2014 and 2020

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表 1 生态环境敏感目标敏感指数赋值

Table 1. Ecological environment sensitive area sensitivity index

环境敏感资源	赋值
自然保护区	5
海洋保护区	4
重要湿地	3
水产种质资源保护区	2
鱼类“三场一通道”	1
其他水域	0.1

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表 2 2014—2020年溢油事故风险指数变化情况

Table 2. Changes of oil spill accident risk index from 2014 to 2020

指标	2014年	2020年	变化情况/%
平均值	0.018	0.023	27.8
最大值	1.53	1.94	26.8

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表 3 2014—2020年高风险集中区溢油事故风险指数变化情况

Table 3. Changes of oil spill accident risk index from 2014 to 2020 in high-risk concentration area

高风险集中区	2014年		2020年		风险指数变化/%
高风险集中区	面积/ 万km²	风险指数总和	面积/ 万km²	风险指数总和	风险指数变化/%
渤海—北黄海	6.43	17.16	5.57	18.22	6.2
长江口	4.08	13.81	4.08	15.22	10.2
台湾海峡	1.88	4.24	2.20	4.83	14.0
珠江口	2.04	7.23	2.43	7.93	9.7
合计	14.43	42.43	14.27	46.20	8.9

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