Ecological health assessment and main influencing factors of Lake Taihu Basin based on PSR model
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摘要:
压力—状态—响应（PSR）模型能反映社会经济状况对湖泊水体生态环境带来的影响。基于PSR模型，构建包含人口密度、流域植被指数、换水周期、浮游植物多样性指数等18项指标的评价指标体系，评价太湖流域生态健康状况。选取1999年、2007年作为历史对照年份，将2011—2020年流域健康状况与对照年份进行比较，分析太湖流域生态健康状况变化。结果显示：1）所构建的指标体系状态层、压力层、响应层权重分别为0.418、0.291、0.291，对太湖流域生态健康产生较大影响的指标主要为大型水生植被覆盖度、湖泊总磷达标率、环保投资占GDP比例、湖泊综合营养状态指数（TSI）、水资源利用开发率及浮游植物多样性指数，其总贡献率为51.74%。2）1999年、2007年太湖流域生态健康评价结果为不健康，2011—2020年处于一般健康至健康状态，其中2015年、2017年生态健康评价指数降低，但总体上2011—2020年流域健康状况呈好转趋势。2011年之后太湖流域健康状况好转主要得益于近十几年中央与地方合力进行流域治理、生态修复和综合管理。2015年、2017年流域生态健康指数波动主要归因于不利的气象因素。3）大型水生植被覆盖度、湖泊总磷达标率、湖泊TSI、浮游植物多样性指数这4项指标的变化与太湖流域生态健康评价指数的变化及健康水平相关性较高，近20年来环保投资占GDP比例的提高、水资源开发利用率的优化在一定程度上减缓了这4项指标下降对太湖流域生态健康带来的不利影响。
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关键词:
- 太湖流域 /
- PSR模型 /
- 层次分析法（AHP） /
- 生态健康 /
- 指标体系
Abstract:The Pressure State Response (PSR) model can reflect the impact of socioeconomic conditions on the ecological environment of lake water bodies. Based on the PSR model, an evaluation index system was constructed, which included 18 indicators such as population density, vegetation index, water exchange cycle, and phytoplankton diversity index. The years 1999 and 2007 were selected as the historical control years, and the ecologicalhealth status of Lake Taihu Basin from 2011 to 2020 was compared with the control years. The results displayed: (1) The weights of the state layer, pressure layer, and response layer were 0.418, 0.291 and 0.291, respectively. The indicators that had a greater impact on the ecological health of Lake Taihu Basin were mainly the coverage of large aquatic vegetation, the rate of reaching the standard of total phosphorus in lakes, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, the comprehensive trophic status index (TSI) of lakes, the utilization and development rate of water resources, and the diversity index of phytoplankton, with an overall contribution rate of 51.74%. (2)The ecological health assessment results of Lake Taihu Basin in 1999 and 2007 were unhealthy, and it was generally healthy to healthy from 2011 to 2020. The ecological health assessment index decreased in 2015 and 2017, but the overall health status of the basin was improving in 2011-2020. After 2011, the improvement of Lake Taihu Basin health was mainly due to pollution control, ecological restoration and management of the state and local government. The fluctuation of the basin ecological health index in 2015 and 2017 was mainly due to adverse meteorological factors. (3)Changes of large aquatic vegetation coverage, total phosphorus compliance rate, TSI, and phytoplankton biodiversity index were consistent with the changes of ecological health assessment index and the health level of Lake Taihu Basin. In the past 20 years, the increase of the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP and the optimization of water resources development and utilization had alleviated the adverse impact of the decline of the four indicators on the ecological health of Lake Taihu Basin to a certain extent.
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Key words:
- Lake Taihu Basin /
- PSR model /
- analytic hierarchy process (AHP) /
- ecological health /
- indicator system
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图 2 1999—2020年太湖流域各评价层的评价指数变化
Figure 2. Changes of evaluation index of each evaluation layer in Lake Taihu Basin from 1999 to 2020
图 3 1999—2020年太湖流域CEI变化
Figure 3. Variation of ecological health assessment index of Lake Taihu Basin from 1999 to 2020
图 4 2007年、2011年、2017年不同指标对CEI影响程度
Figure 4. Degree of impact of different indicators on ecological health assessment index in 2007, 2011 and 2017
图 5 1999—2020年太湖水生植被覆盖度变化
Figure 5. Variations of aquatic vegetation coverage in Lake Taihu in 1999-2020
图 6 1999—2020年太湖水体总磷浓度变化
Figure 6. Variations of total phosphorus concentration in Lake Taihu from 1999 to 2020
表 1 湖泊流域生态健康评价指标体系
Table 1. Ecological health evaluation index system of lake basin
目标层 准则层 指标层 单位 指标
属性流域生态
健康评价
（A）压力（B1） 人口密度（C11） 人/km2 逆向 环保投资占GDP比例（C12） % 正向 建成区面积比例（C13） % 逆向 流域植被指数（C14） 正向 自然湖岸带比例（C15） % 正向 总用水量（C16） 亿m3 逆向 水资源开发利用率（C17） % 逆向 总氮排放量（C18） 万t 逆向 总磷排放量（C19） 万t 逆向 状态（B2） 可利用水资源量（C21） 亿m3 正向 湖泊换水周期（C22） d 逆向 湖泊总氮达标率（C23） % 正向 湖泊总磷达标率（C24） % 正向 湖泊TSI（C25） 逆向 响应（B3） 浮游植物多样性指数（C31） 正向 浮游动物多样性指数（C32） 正向 底栖动物多样性指数（C33） 正向 大型水生植被覆盖度（C34） 正向 
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表 2 湖泊流域生态健康评价指标体系不同指标权重
Table 2. Weight values of different indicators of ecological health evaluation index system of lake basin
目标层 准则层 权重 指标层 权重 综合权重 流域生态健康评价（A） 压力（B1） 0.418 0 人口密度（C11） 0.064 5 0.026 9 环保投资占GDP比例（C12） 0.213 8 0.089 4 建成区面积比例（C13） 0.117 3 0.049 0 流域植被指数（C14） 0.061 2 0.025 6 自然湖岸带比例（C15） 0.059 3 0.024 8 总用水量（C16） 0.162 2 0.067 8 水资源开发利用率（C17） 0.175 1 0.073 2 总氮排放量（C18） 0.079 8 0.033 4 总磷排放量（C19） 0.066 8 0.027 9 状态（B2） 0.291 0 可利用水资源量（C21） 0.067 0 0.019 5 湖泊换水周期（C22） 0.152 3 0.044 3 湖泊总氮达标率（C23） 0.190 7 0.055 4 湖泊总磷达标率（C24） 0.324 7 0.094 5 湖泊TSI（C25） 0.265 3 0.077 2 响应（B3） 0.291 0 浮游植物多样性指数（C31） 0.214 0 0.062 3 浮游动物多样性指数（C32） 0.170 1 0.049 5 底栖动物多样性指数（C33） 0.200 8 0.058 5 大型水生植被覆盖度（C34） 0.415 1 0.120 8
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表 3 湖泊流域生态健康指数(CEI)分级标准
Table 3. Classification standard of CEI for lake basin
CEI 健康分级 <0.2 非常不健康 0.2~0.4 不健康 0.4~0.6 一般健康 0.6~0.8 健康 0.8~1.0 非常健康
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