湖北省农作物碳汇的阶段性特征、空间差异与动态演进

张金鑫; 彭雄; 张金华; 刘军彤; 胡婉玲

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240301

湖北省农作物碳汇的阶段性特征、空间差异与动态演进—基于1997—2022年湖北省农作物数据

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240301

张金鑫^{1, 2,},
彭雄³,
张金华⁴,
刘军彤^{1, 2, ,},
胡婉玲^{5, 6}

1.
湖北大学商学院
2.
湖北大学中国农业暨典型行业碳减排碳交易研究中心
3.
湖北省农业农村厅对外合作办公室
4.
中共广西区委党校（广西行政学院）应急管理培训部
5.
华中农业大学经济管理学院
6.
碳排放权登记结算（武汉）有限责任公司

基金项目: 湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目（20Q006）；国家社会科学基金项目（19ZDA085）；国家自然科学基金项目（71871086）

详细信息

作者简介:
张金鑫（1988—），男，高级实验师，博士，主要从事农业暨典型行业碳减排碳交易研究，zhangjinxin999@foxmail.com

通讯作者:
刘军彤(2004—)，男，主要从事农业碳减排碳交易研究，tonggai@foxmail.com

中图分类号: X171.1；X321
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- 文章访问数: 46
- HTML全文浏览量: 29
- PDF下载量: 6
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-05-08
- 录用日期: 2024-07-28
- 修回日期: 2024-06-26

Stage characteristics, spatial differences and dynamic evolution of crop carbon sink in Hubei Province based on the crop data from 1997 to 2022

ZHANG Jinxin^{1, 2
,},
PENG Xiong³,
ZHANG Jinhua⁴,
LIU Juntong^{1, 2
, ,},
HU Wanling^{5, 6}

1.
School of Business, Hubei University
2.
Research Center for Carbon Emission Reduction and Carbon Trading in Chinese Agriculture and Typical Industries, Hubei University
3.
Office of Foreign Cooperation, Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Hubei Province
4.
Emergency Management Training Department, Party School of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Committee of CPC (Guangxi Administrative College)
5.
School of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University
6.
Carbon Emission Allowance Registration and Settlement (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.

摘要

摘要:
湖北省是我国农业大省，科学测算湖北省农作物碳汇，摸清本底，对碳汇交易和农业低碳发展具有重要意义。对湖北省1997—2022年的农作物碳汇量进行测算，运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov链，探讨湖北省农作物碳汇量的地区差异和动态演进特征。结果表明：1997—2022年，湖北省农作物碳汇量呈现“W”形波动上升的态势，平均值为12 085.30万t，其中粮食作物为湖北省农作物碳汇的主要贡献来源。“双碳”背景下对湖北省的三大地区及各市（州、林区）展开分析，发现1997—2022年鄂东地区农作物碳汇量位于湖北省三大地区的第一位。Dagum基尼系数分析显示湖北省农作物碳汇存在一定的地区差异，其差异主要来自于超变密度，平均贡献率为53.58%，湖北省农作物碳汇总量具有较强的稳定性，具有一定的俱乐部趋同特征。最后提出相关对策建议，如开发农作物碳汇核算方法学和标准，制定差异化的农业碳汇增汇政策，探索农业碳汇交易机制及价值实现。
- 农作物 /
- 碳汇 /
- Dagum基尼系数 /
- Kernal密度 /
- Markov链 /
- 湖北省
Abstract:
Hubei Province is a major agricultural province in China. The scientific measurement of the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province, which clarifies the baseline, is of significant importance for carbon sink trading and the development of low-carbon agriculture. The study measured the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022, employing the Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, and Markov chains, to explore the regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province. The results indicated that from 1997 to 2022, the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, presenting a "W" shaped distribution with an average value of 120.853 million tons, with grain crops being the primary contributor to the crop carbon sink. Under the "dual carbon" context, an analysis of three major regions and cities (prefectures) in Hubei Province revealed that from 1997 to 2022, the eastern region of Hubei Province ranked first among the three major regions in terms of crop carbon sink. The Dagum Gini coefficient analysis showed certain regional differences in the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province, mainly coming from ultra-variable density, with an average contribution rate of 53.58%. The total crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited strong stability and demonstrated certain characteristics of club convergence. Finally, this paper proposed the development of methodologies and standards for crop carbon sink accounting, the formulation of differentiated policies for increasing agricultural carbon sink, and suggestions for exploring countermeasures for carbon sink trading.
- crops /
- carbon sink /
- Dagum Gini coefficient /
- Kernel density /
- Markov chain /
- Hubei Province

HTML全文

图 1 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇量变化

Figure 1. Carbon sink changes of crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1997—2022年湖北省粮食作物和经济作物碳汇分布

Figure 2. Carbon sink distributions of grain and cash crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1997—2022年湖北省三大地区农作物碳汇变化趋势

Figure 3. Trends in crop carbon sink changes in three major regions of Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 湖北省农作物碳汇的地区内差异、地区间差异子群分布

Figure 4. Distribution of sub groups of intra regional and inter regional differences in crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的时空分布格局

注：地图底图为GS（2019）1822号。

Figure 5. Spatial and temporal distribution pattern of crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的分布动态

Figure 6. Distribution dynamics of crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 湖北省三大地区农作物碳汇的分布动态

Figure 7. Distribution dynamics of crop carbon sinks in the three major regions of Hubei Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 湖北省主要农作物碳吸收率、含水率及经济系数

Table 1. Carbon absorption rate, moisture content and economic coefficient of main crops in Hubei Province

作物类型	作物种类	碳吸收率	含水率	经济系数
粮食作物	水稻^[21,26]	0.414	0.12	0.45
	小麦^[21,26]	0.485	0.12	0.40
	玉米^[21,26]	0.471	0.13	0.40
	豆类^[21,26]	0.450	0.13	0.35
	薯类^[21,26]	0.423	0.70	0.70
经济作物	棉花^[21,26]	0.450	0.08	0.10
	油菜^[18,21]	0.450	0.25	0.10
	花生^[21,27-28]	0.450	0.43	0.10
	芝麻^[28-29]	0.450	0.145	0.12
	麻类^[25]	0.450	0.13	0.10
	糖类^[26]	0.550	0.85	0.45
	烟草^[21,25,27]	0.450	0.55	0.16

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的地区差异

Table 2. Regional differences in crop carbon sink in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

年份	总体	地区内差异	地区间净差异	地区间超变密度	贡献率/%
年份	总体	地区内差异	地区间净差异	地区间超变密度	地区内差异	地区间差异	地区间超变密度
1997	0.406 3	0.130 0	0.049 4	0.227 0	31.986	12.154	55.860
1998	0.408 4	0.129 1	0.048 4	0.230 9	31.605	11.840	56.555
1999	0.412 1	0.132 9	0.047 5	0.231 7	32.243	11.529	56.228
2000	0.395 6	0.125 1	0.053 5	0.216 9	31.635	13.536	54.829
2001	0.404 6	0.127 0	0.064 6	0.213 0	31.390	15.961	52.649
2002	0.406 6	0.129 9	0.037 7	0.239 0	31.942	9.280	58.778
2003	0.403 7	0.128 8	0.053 3	0.221 6	31.904	13.196	54.900
2004	0.407 9	0.130 1	0.055 4	0.222 4	31.887	13.576	54.537
2005	0.404 0	0.129 4	0.053 5	0.221 1	32.025	13.245	54.730
2006	0.400 2	0.127 8	0.049 0	0.223 3	31.946	12.241	55.813
2007	0.409 1	0.130 2	0.055 2	0.223 7	31.815	13.495	54.689
2008	0.407 5	0.129 7	0.052 5	0.225 2	31.844	12.894	55.262
2009	0.406 5	0.129 2	0.055 1	0.222 2	31.786	13.558	54.656
2010	0.407 7	0.129 2	0.057 9	0.220 7	31.687	14.194	54.120
2011	0.404 5	0.127 8	0.064 1	0.212 6	31.584	15.857	52.559
2012	0.406 2	0.128 5	0.062 2	0.215 5	31.624	15.310	53.066
2013	0.410 1	0.129 9	0.071 0	0.209 3	31.681	17.299	51.020
2014	0.411 3	0.130 0	0.070 5	0.210 8	31.612	17.145	51.243
2015	0.410 6	0.129 9	0.069 5	0.211 2	31.629	16.931	51.440
2016	0.421 5	0.132 4	0.062 9	0.226 2	31.414	14.923	53.664
2017	0.423 1	0.131 9	0.079 0	0.212 2	31.183	18.667	50.151
2018	0.423 1	0.132 9	0.072 6	0.217 6	31.407	17.156	51.438
2019	0.425 0	0.133 1	0.076 6	0.215 4	31.316	18.016	50.668
2020	0.428 2	0.134 4	0.072 6	0.221 1	31.389	16.967	51.644
2021	0.427 6	0.134 4	0.074 5	0.218 7	31.438	17.421	51.141
2022	0.428 3	0.135 0	0.073 1	0.220 2	31.515	17.077	51.408
平均值	0.411 5	0.130 3	0.060 8	0.220 4	31.672	14.749	53.579

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 湖北省农作物碳汇的Markov转移概率矩阵

Table 3. Markov transfer probability matrix of crop carbon sink in Hubei Province

t/(t+1)	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
Ⅰ	0.944	0.056	0	0
Ⅱ	0.057	0.896	0.047	0
Ⅲ	0	0.037	0.925	0.037
Ⅳ	0	0	0.038	0.962

下载: 导出CSV

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