湖北省农作物碳汇的阶段性特征、空间差异与动态演进

张金鑫; 彭雄; 张金华; 刘军彤; 胡婉玲

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240301

湖北省农作物碳汇的阶段性特征、空间差异与动态演进—基于1997—2022年湖北省农作物数据

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240301

张金鑫^{1, 2,},
彭雄³,
张金华⁴,
刘军彤^{1, 2, ,},
胡婉玲^{5, 6}

1.
湖北大学商学院
2.
湖北大学中国农业暨典型行业碳减排碳交易研究中心
3.
湖北省农业农村厅对外合作办公室
4.
中共广西区委党校（广西行政学院）应急管理培训部
5.
华中农业大学经济管理学院
6.
碳排放权登记结算（武汉）有限责任公司

基金项目: 湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目（20Q006）；国家社会科学基金项目（19ZDA085）；国家自然科学基金项目（71871086）

详细信息

作者简介:
张金鑫（1988—），男，高级实验师，博士，主要从事农业暨典型行业碳减排碳交易研究，zhangjinxin999@foxmail.com

通讯作者:
刘军彤(2004—)，男，主要从事农业碳减排碳交易研究，tonggai@foxmail.com

中图分类号: X171.1；X321
计量
- 文章访问数: 13
- HTML全文浏览量: 3
- PDF下载量: 1
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-05-08
- 录用日期: 2024-07-28
- 修回日期: 2024-06-26

Stage characteristics, spatial differences and dynamic evolution of crop carbon sink in Hubei Province based on the crop data from 1997 to 2022

ZHANG Jinxin^{1, 2
,},
PENG Xiong³,
ZHANG Jinhua⁴,
LIU Juntong^{1, 2
, ,},
HU Wanling^{5, 6}

1.
School of Business, Hubei University
2.
Research Center for Carbon Emission Reduction and Carbon Trading in Chinese Agriculture and Typical Industries, Hubei University
3.
Office of Foreign Cooperation, Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Hubei Province
4.
Emergency Management Training Department, Party School of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Committee of CPC (Guangxi Administrative College)
5.
School of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University
6.
Carbon Emission Allowance Registration and Settlement (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.

摘要

摘要:
湖北省是我国农业大省，科学测算湖北省农作物碳汇，摸清本底，对碳汇交易和农业低碳发展具有重要意义。对湖北省1997—2022年的农作物碳汇量进行测算，运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov链，探讨湖北省农作物碳汇量的地区差异和动态演进特征。结果表明：1997—2022年，湖北省农作物碳汇量呈现“W”形波动上升的态势，平均值为12 085.30万t，其中粮食作物为湖北省农作物碳汇的主要贡献来源。“双碳”背景下对湖北省的三大地区及各市（州、林区）展开分析，发现1997—2022年鄂东地区农作物碳汇量位于湖北省三大地区的第一位。Dagum基尼系数分析显示湖北省农作物碳汇存在一定的地区差异，其差异主要来自于超变密度，平均贡献率为53.58%，湖北省农作物碳汇总量具有较强的稳定性，具有一定的俱乐部趋同特征。最后提出相关对策建议，如开发农作物碳汇核算方法学和标准，制定差异化的农业碳汇增汇政策，探索农业碳汇交易机制及价值实现。
- 农作物 /
- 碳汇 /
- Dagum基尼系数 /
- Kernal密度 /
- Markov链 /
- 湖北省
Abstract:
Hubei Province is a major agricultural province in China. The scientific measurement of the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province, which clarifies the baseline, is of significant importance for carbon sink trading and the development of low-carbon agriculture. The study measured the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022, employing the Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, and Markov chains, to explore the regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province. The results indicated that from 1997 to 2022, the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, presenting a "W" shaped distribution with an average value of 120.853 million tons, with grain crops being the primary contributor to the crop carbon sink. Under the "dual carbon" context, an analysis of three major regions and cities (prefectures) in Hubei Province revealed that from 1997 to 2022, the eastern region of Hubei Province ranked first among the three major regions in terms of crop carbon sink. The Dagum Gini coefficient analysis showed certain regional differences in the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province, mainly coming from ultra-variable density, with an average contribution rate of 53.58%. The total crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited strong stability and demonstrated certain characteristics of club convergence. Finally, this paper proposed the development of methodologies and standards for crop carbon sink accounting, the formulation of differentiated policies for increasing agricultural carbon sink, and suggestions for exploring countermeasures for carbon sink trading.
- crops /
- carbon sink /
- Dagum Gini coefficient /
- Kernel density /
- Markov chain /
- Hubei Province

HTML全文

图 1 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇量变化

Figure 1. Carbon sink changes of crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1997—2022年湖北省粮食作物和经济作物碳汇分布

Figure 2. Carbon sink distributions of grain and cash crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1997—2022年湖北省三大地区农作物碳汇变化趋势

Figure 3. Trends in crop carbon sink changes in three major regions of Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 湖北省农作物碳汇的地区内差异、地区间差异子群分布

Figure 4. Distribution of sub groups of intra regional and inter regional differences in crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的时空分布格局

注：地图底图为GS（2019）1822号。

Figure 5. Spatial and temporal distribution pattern of crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的分布动态

Figure 6. Distribution dynamics of crop carbon sinks in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 湖北省三大地区农作物碳汇的分布动态

Figure 7. Distribution dynamics of crop carbon sinks in the three major regions of Hubei Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 湖北省主要农作物碳吸收率、含水率及经济系数

Table 1. Carbon absorption rate, moisture content and economic coefficient of main crops in Hubei Province

作物类型	作物种类	碳吸收率	含水率	经济系数
粮食作物	水稻^[21,26]	0.414	0.12	0.45
	小麦^[21,26]	0.485	0.12	0.40
	玉米^[21,26]	0.471	0.13	0.40
	豆类^[21,26]	0.450	0.13	0.35
	薯类^[21,26]	0.423	0.70	0.70
经济作物	棉花^[21,26]	0.450	0.08	0.10
	油菜^[18,21]	0.450	0.25	0.10
	花生^[21,27-28]	0.450	0.43	0.10
	芝麻^[28-29]	0.450	0.145	0.12
	麻类^[25]	0.450	0.13	0.10
	糖类^[26]	0.550	0.85	0.45
	烟草^[21,25,27]	0.450	0.55	0.16

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1997—2022年湖北省农作物碳汇的地区差异

Table 2. Regional differences in crop carbon sink in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022

年份	总体	地区内差异	地区间净差异	地区间超变密度	贡献率/%
年份	总体	地区内差异	地区间净差异	地区间超变密度	地区内差异	地区间差异	地区间超变密度
1997	0.406 3	0.130 0	0.049 4	0.227 0	31.986	12.154	55.860
1998	0.408 4	0.129 1	0.048 4	0.230 9	31.605	11.840	56.555
1999	0.412 1	0.132 9	0.047 5	0.231 7	32.243	11.529	56.228
2000	0.395 6	0.125 1	0.053 5	0.216 9	31.635	13.536	54.829
2001	0.404 6	0.127 0	0.064 6	0.213 0	31.390	15.961	52.649
2002	0.406 6	0.129 9	0.037 7	0.239 0	31.942	9.280	58.778
2003	0.403 7	0.128 8	0.053 3	0.221 6	31.904	13.196	54.900
2004	0.407 9	0.130 1	0.055 4	0.222 4	31.887	13.576	54.537
2005	0.404 0	0.129 4	0.053 5	0.221 1	32.025	13.245	54.730
2006	0.400 2	0.127 8	0.049 0	0.223 3	31.946	12.241	55.813
2007	0.409 1	0.130 2	0.055 2	0.223 7	31.815	13.495	54.689
2008	0.407 5	0.129 7	0.052 5	0.225 2	31.844	12.894	55.262
2009	0.406 5	0.129 2	0.055 1	0.222 2	31.786	13.558	54.656
2010	0.407 7	0.129 2	0.057 9	0.220 7	31.687	14.194	54.120
2011	0.404 5	0.127 8	0.064 1	0.212 6	31.584	15.857	52.559
2012	0.406 2	0.128 5	0.062 2	0.215 5	31.624	15.310	53.066
2013	0.410 1	0.129 9	0.071 0	0.209 3	31.681	17.299	51.020
2014	0.411 3	0.130 0	0.070 5	0.210 8	31.612	17.145	51.243
2015	0.410 6	0.129 9	0.069 5	0.211 2	31.629	16.931	51.440
2016	0.421 5	0.132 4	0.062 9	0.226 2	31.414	14.923	53.664
2017	0.423 1	0.131 9	0.079 0	0.212 2	31.183	18.667	50.151
2018	0.423 1	0.132 9	0.072 6	0.217 6	31.407	17.156	51.438
2019	0.425 0	0.133 1	0.076 6	0.215 4	31.316	18.016	50.668
2020	0.428 2	0.134 4	0.072 6	0.221 1	31.389	16.967	51.644
2021	0.427 6	0.134 4	0.074 5	0.218 7	31.438	17.421	51.141
2022	0.428 3	0.135 0	0.073 1	0.220 2	31.515	17.077	51.408
平均值	0.411 5	0.130 3	0.060 8	0.220 4	31.672	14.749	53.579

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 湖北省农作物碳汇的Markov转移概率矩阵

Table 3. Markov transfer probability matrix of crop carbon sink in Hubei Province

t/(t+1)	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
Ⅰ	0.944	0.056	0	0
Ⅱ	0.057	0.896	0.047	0
Ⅲ	0	0.037	0.925	0.037
Ⅳ	0	0	0.038	0.962

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(37)

[1]	胡婉玲, 张金鑫, 王红玲. 中国农业碳排放特征及影响因素研究[J]. 统计与决策,2020,36(5):56-62. HU W L, ZHANG J X, WANG H L. Characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in China[J]. Statistics & Decision,2020,36(5):56-62.
[2]	李艳苓, 朱昌雄, 李红娜, 等. 基于层次分析法的农业面源污染防治技术评价[J]. 环境工程技术学报,2019,9(4):355-361. LI Y L, ZHU C X, LI H N, et al. Evaluation of agricultural non-point source pollution control technologies based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2019,9(4):355-361.
[3]	董红敏, 李玉娥, 陶秀萍, 等. 中国农业源温室气体排放与减排技术对策[J]. 农业工程学报,2008,24(10):269-273. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2008.10.055 DONG H M, LI Y E, TAO X P, et al. China greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities and its mitigation strategy[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2008,24(10):269-273. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2008.10.055
[4]	胡婉玲, 张金鑫, 王红玲. 中国种植业碳排放时空分异研究[J]. 统计与决策,2020,36(15):92-95. HU W L, ZHANG J X, WANG H L. Research on the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon emissions in China's planting industry[J]. Statistics & Decision,2020,36(15):92-85.
[5]	LAL R, BRUCE J P. The potential of world cropland soils to sequester C and mitigate the greenhouse effect[J]. Environmental Science & Policy,1999,2(2):177-185.
[6]	陈罗烨, 薛领, 雪燕. 中国农业净碳汇时空演化特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报,2016,31(4):596-607. CHEN L Y, XUE L, XUE Y. Spatial-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural net carbon sink[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(4):596-607.
[7]	尚杰, 杨滨键. 区域农业碳足迹动态影响效应研究: 以潍坊市种植业为例[J]. 农村经济,2020(5):75-82.
[8]	丁宝根, 杨树旺, 赵玉. 长江经济带种植业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报,2019,35(10):1252-1258. DING B G, YANG S W, ZHAO Y. Study on spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of carbon emission from planting industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2019,35(10):1252-1258.
[9]	陈红, 王浩坤, 秦帅. 农业碳排放的脱钩效应及驱动因素分析: 以黑龙江省为例[J]. 科技管理研究,2019,39(17):247-252. CHEN H, WANG H K, QIN S. Analysis of decoupling effect and driving factors of agricultural carbon emission: a case study of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Science and Technology Management Research,2019,39(17):247-252.
[10]	翟国庆, 韩明钊, 李永江, 等. 黑土坡耕地有机碳变化及固碳潜力分析[J]. 生态学报,2020,40(16):5751-5760. ZHAI G Q, HAN M Z, LI Y J, et al. Organic carbon change and carbon sequestration potential of sloping farmland in the black soil area[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2020,40(16):5751-5760.
[11]	韩冰, 王效科, 逯非, 等. 中国农田土壤生态系统固碳现状和潜力[J]. 生态学报,2008,28(2):612-619. HAN B, WANG X K, LU F, et al. Soil carbon sequestration and its potential by cropland ecosystems in China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(2):612-619.
[12]	董婧, 孙长虹, 王永刚, 等. 北京市典型农业区域大气环境氨浓度动态变化分析[J]. 环境工程技术学报,2017,7(3):262-267. DONG J, SUN C H, WANG Y G, et al. Dynamics of atmospheric ammonia concentrations over representative agricultural region in Beijing[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2017,7(3):262-267.
[13]	谢高地, 李士美, 肖玉, 等. 碳汇价值的形成和评价[J]. 自然资源学报,2011,26(1):1-10. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.001 XIE G D, LI S M, XIAO Y, et al. Value of carbon sink: concept and evaluation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):1-10. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.001
[14]	朱燕茹, 王梁. 农田生态系统碳源/碳汇综述[J]. 天津农业科学,2019,25(3):27-32. ZHU Y R, WANG L. A review of carbon source and carbon sink in farmland ecosystem[J]. Tianjin Agricultural Sciences,2019,25(3):27-32.
[15]	祁巍锋, 唐彩飞. 工业型村庄碳排放影响因素研究: 以杭州市萧山区凤凰村例[J]. 建筑与文化,2016(4):155-157. QI W F, TANG C F. Study on the influencing factors of carbon emission in industrial villages:a case study of Fenghuang Village, Xiaoshan City, Hangzhou[J]. Architecture & Culture,2016(4):155-157.
[16]	GOGLIO P, SMITH W N, GRANT B B, et al. A comparison of methods to quantify greenhouse gas emissions of cropping systems in LCA[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,172:4010-4017. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.133
[17]	尚杰, 杨滨键. 种植业碳源、碳汇测算与净碳汇影响因素动态分析: 山东例证[J]. 改革,2019(6):123-134. SHANG J, YANG B J. Estimation of carbon source and carbon sequestration in planting industry and dynamic analysis of influencing factors of net carbon sequestration: a case study of Shandong Province[J]. Reform,2019(6):123-134.
[18]	李波, 张俊飚. 我国农作物碳汇的阶段特征与空间差异研究[J]. 湖北农业科学,2013,52(5):1229-1233. LI B, ZHANG J B. Study on phase characteristics and spatial differences of Chinese agricultural carbon sinks[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2013,52(5):1229-1233.
[19]	李波, 王春妤, 张俊飚. 中国农业净碳汇效率动态演进与空间溢出效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(12):68-76. LI B, WANG C Y, ZHANG J B. Dynamic evolution and spatial spillover of China’s agricultural net carbon sink[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment,2019,29(12):68-76.
[20]	张精, 方堉, 魏锦达, 等. 基于碳足迹的安徽省农田生态系统碳源/汇时空差异[J]. 福建农业学报,2021,36(1):78-90. ZHANG J, FANG Y, WEI J D, et al. Carbon footprint-based temporal and spatial analysis on carbon sources/sinks at farmlands in Anhui Province[J]. Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2021,36(1):78-90.
[21]	李克让. 土地利用变化和温室气体净排放与陆地生态系统碳循环[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2002: 310.
[22]	伍国勇, 刘金丹, 杨丽莎. 中国农业碳排放强度动态演进及碳补偿潜力[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2021,31(10):69-78. doi: 10.12062/cpre.20210606 WU G Y, LIU J D, YANG L S. Dynamic evolution of China's agricultural carbon emission intensity and carbon offset potential[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment,2021,31(10):69-78. doi: 10.12062/cpre.20210606
[23]	国家发展和改革委员会. 省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)[S]. 北京: 国家发展和改革委员会, 2011.
[24]	张金鑫, 胡婉玲, 王红玲. 湖北省农业碳排放的时序特征与影响因素分析[J]. 湖北农业科学,2020,59(24):67-74. ZHANG J X, HU W L, WANG H L. Analysis of the timing characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2020,59(24):67-74.
[25]	王诗雨, 刘学伟, 崔鸿鹏, 等. 农田生态系统碳源/汇时空演变因素分析: 以黑龙江省为例[J]. 中国国土资源经济: 2024, 37(5): 4-13. WANG S Y, LIU X W, CUI H P, et al. Analysis of temporal and spatial evolution factors of carbon source/sink in farmland ecosystem: a case study of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Natural Resource Economics of China, 2024, 37(5): 4-13.
[26]	王宝英, 齐爱云, 王子莎. 黄河流域与长江经济带种植业碳足迹供需平衡对比研究[J]. 湖北农业科学,2022,61(3):53-59. WANG B Y, QI A Y, WANG Z S. A comparative study on the supply and demand balance of the planting industry carbon footprint between the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2022,61(3):53-59.
[27]	王梁, 赵杰, 陈守越. 山东省农田生态系统碳源、碳汇及其碳足迹变化分析[J]. 中国农业大学学报,2016,21(7):133-141. doi: 10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.07.17 WANG L, ZHAO J, CHEN S Y. Analysis of ecosystem carbon sources/sinks and carbon footprint in farmland ecosystem of Shandong Province[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2016,21(7):133-141. doi: 10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.07.17
[28]	RONG T Q, ZHANG P Y, ZHU H R, et al. Spatial correlation evolution and prediction scenario of land use carbon emissions in China[J]. Ecological Informatics,2022,71:101802. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101802
[29]	徐玥, 王辉, 韩秋凤. 中国农业净碳效应与农业经济发展的时空耦合规律研究[J]. 新疆农垦经济,2023(7):1-12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7652.2023.07.002 XU Y, WANG H, HAN Q F. A study of the spatial-temporal coupling patterns between the net carbon effect of agriculture and agricultural economic development in China[J]. Xinjiang State Farms Economy,2023(7):1-12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7652.2023.07.002
[30]	MAI Q S, BAI M T, LI L. Study on the dynamic evolution and regional differences of the level of high-quality economic and social development in China[J]. Sustainability,2022,15(1):382. doi: 10.3390/su15010382
[31]	CHEN P H, RAO M Y, VASA L, et al. Spatial effects and heterogeneity analysis of the impact of environmental taxes on carbon emissions in China[J]. Heliyon,2023,9(11):e21393. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21393
[32]	LV C C, BIAN B C, LEE C C, et al. Regional gap and the trend of green finance development in China[J]. Energy Economics,2021,102:105476. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105476
[33]	张卓群, 张涛, 冯冬发. 中国碳排放强度的区域差异、动态演进及收敛性研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2022,39(4):67-87. ZHANG Z Q, ZHANG T, FENG D F. Study on regional differences, dynamic evolution and convergence of carbon emission intensity in China[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2022,39(4):67-87.
[34]	陈景华, 陈姚, 陈敏敏. 中国经济高质量发展水平、区域差异及分布动态演进[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2020,37(12):108-126. CHEN J H, CHEN Y, CHEN M M. China's high-quality economic development level, regional differences and dynamic evolution of distribution[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2020,37(12):108-126.
[35]	LI Z F, CAI Y L, HU S L. Research on systemic financial risk measurement based on HMM and text mining: a case of China financial market[J]. IEEE Access,2021,9:22171-22185. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3055967
[36]	刘巽浩, 徐文修, 李增嘉, 等. 农田生态系统碳足迹法: 误区、改进与应用: 兼析中国集约农作碳效率(续)[J]. 中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(1):1-7. doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20140101 LIU X H, XU W X, LI Z J, et al. The missteps, improvement and application of carbon footprint methodology in farmland ecosystems with the case study of analyzing the carbon efficiency of China’s intensive farming[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2014,35(1):1-7. doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20140101
[37]	谢婷, 张慧, 苗洁, 等. 湖北省农田生态系统温室气体排放特征与源/汇分析[J]. 农业资源与环境学报,2021,38(5):839-848. XIE T, ZHANG H, MIAO J, et al. Greenhouse gas emission characteristics and source/sink analysis of farmland ecosystem in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment,2021,38(5):839-848. ⊕