Abstract:
Black carbon aerosol is an important component of atmospheric aerosol, which has a strong absorption effect on solar radiation from visible to infrared band, and has great influence on regional climate. Applying the regional climate model RegCM3, with the establishment of an independent black carbon emissions list in 2013 as the base year, the effects of black carbon aerosol emission on the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere under four scenarios of BB (business as usual), EE, EB and BE in 2030 were simulated, and the climate effects caused by black carbon emissions under different scenarios analyzed. The results show that of the black carbon emissions the four scenarios are in the order of BB>EB>BE>EE. The temperature and rainfall distribution under BB scenario in 2030 are basically in accordance with those in 2013, with no obvious change. The emissions of EB scenario and BE scenario are basically the same, but the focuses of the emission reduction of them are different, resulting in slightly different climate effects. The EE scenario has the maximum emission effort, and the emission is thus reduced to 980 thousand tons, which will cause more significant change of temperature and rainfall compared with the other three scenarios. Under this scenario, when the black carbon emission decreases, the heating effect is reduced and the cooling effect is prominent. Comparing the emissions of BE and EB scenarios, it can be found that the industrial sector has more emission reductions under BE scenario, while the civilian sector has more emission reductions under EB scenario, indicating that the emission control measures can play a larger role in the industrial sector, while the energy structure adjustment measures of the civilian sector is more important.